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Romney would have won the state but if you look deep into the numbers, it's simply not true. if you look at the 2016 exit, 2012 exit polls for example, the percentage of the e elect trit was up. the math isn't there. republicans are kidding themselves if they think they can win a presidential election and win a state like florida if they try to repeat numbers. this is florida with a high cuban population. different population 60-39. republicans are kidding themselves if they think they can get more white people to turn out. the math does not work. >> john, thanks very much. given the facts on ...

Trump can serve as a campaign here and maybe he's not going to last into the middle term. by fall, when we come back from vacation, things start getting serious, everybody will settle down and realize donald trump is really just running for the attention, he's not really a serious candidate at all and people will move on. >> well, since when does motive matter? [ laughter ] >> i mean, if it's working, he's going to stay in. he's not going to quit if he's doing well and motive doesn't matter. if she's a showman, businessman, he's all those things, he seems to have grabbed something in the gut o...

>> well, i think the democrats have a fairly strong bench and i'll talk about them in a moment but i want to push back on the deal hilary is being dragged down by obamacare. she's cleaning the clock of most of the feel and a tossup with the most popular broadly republican we have, and i will agree that none of these polls are -- predict anything in the future. in 2006 around this time, cnn's polling had mccain ahead of obama and nbc's polling had him by five or six points. they are sort of meaningless, the contors have not been settled. for me, the real challenge for republicans is this, look,...

Degree of proportional representation, what we call the alternative vote. or av plus. it all gets terribly complicated at this stage. the point is, the tories were not prepared to give it to them, until tonight, until after gordon brown said he would resign. then they suddenly said, you know what? you can have a referendum on reform. labor said, forget the referendum, we'll give it to you anyway. the problem is the one people not being consulted in all this are those very strange people, the elect trit. you remember the people who went to the polls last week. >> the conservative response to, a...

Was it the tea party group targeting a sample to get their first real victory or was there something more deep about this? >> it was largely and specifically the first thing you mentioned. the club for growth which has taken on multiple incumbents over the course of a decade like this saw this opportunity a long time ago and started helping tea party activists organize in order to take over party caucuses. march 23rd they held party caucuses and selected mostly anti-bennett pro-tea party delegates, just anti-bennett, that was the key thing. a lot of people point out that was when he lost. he h...