Page 4 - Equity Model News Today : Breaking News, Live Updates & Top Stories | Vimarsana

By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our Equity Model’s 6-month forecast for the S&P 500 turned significantly negative on economic factors and record market valuation. Along with our Short-Term Risk model, this dictates defensive positioning. Our 6-month Equity Model turned significantly negative at ‑7.9% in January on economic factors. The economic component of the model dropped sharply and turned negative this month, to -4.2% (see Market Outlook). In addition, market valuation has risen to extremely overvalued levels. Congress passed over $3 trillion of deficit spending in 2020 to fight the effect o...

We have captured most of the market upside in November. While our 6-month Equity Model continues to indicate Positive Fundamentals, our Short-Term Risk model now gives a Sell signal because of exuberant investor sentiment. The stock market rebounded strongly as investors turned optimistic after the election and positive vaccine news. November was the best month since April – the S&P 500 gained 11% in the month, taking its year-to-date gain to 14%. We had increased our equity exposure to a maximum on November 2 nd on our models’ positive signals, which allowed us to capture most of the up...