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Runaway Inflation - A Pin For Stock Market Bubble


Today’s consumer price inflation numbers were staggeringly high.
High inflation will likely be followed by rising market interest rates (yields).
I speculate once again why I think this will prove to be the proverbial pin to prick this bubble.
The stocks market rally since April-2020 took it to an extreme valuation. It’s a bubble, pure and simple, as I’ve been writing since February. Reason doesn’t apply to bubbles – instead, they are sustained by crowd mentality. Still, all bubbles burst – the bigger the bubble, the more severe the crash. This bubble in stocks (and in bonds, real estate, etc.) is very big, in no small part due to the Fed’s policies. By most measures, the market valuation is at its highest in at least 150 years, as I detailed in my recent articles (see here and here). Once again, the Shiller’s P/E ratio, which controls for earnings cyclicality, is at its highest in at least 150 years (other than the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000): ....

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The End Of The Bubble Is Near


By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Model Capital Management LLC
Some observers agree that the bubble will burst, but timing is harder to determine. Rising inflation and interest rates are the reasons the end is near, in Model Capital’s view.
Our Equity and Short-Term Risk models continue with
Sell signals, dictating defensive positioning.
Stocks continued to rise this year, taking the market to an even-more-extreme valuation. It’s a bubble; there’s no other way to describe it. What will happen, and when?
The first question is much easier to answer than the second. All bubbles inevitably burst – It’s a certainty. The bigger the bubble, the more severe the crash. This bubble in stocks (and in bonds, housing, etc.) will likely burst spectacularly because it’s very big. By several measures, stock market valuation is at its highest in 150 years, as I detailed in my recent commentaries (see here and here). The Fed made it bigger. Many manag ....

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Bubble Mentality - What Might Trigger A Turn In The Market?


By Roman Chuyan, CFA
I show (again) that the stock market valuation is at its highest in at least 150 years.
However, reason doesn’t apply in a bubble; instead, crowd mentality is in charge.
What might trigger a turn in the market? I think inflation and rising rates are inevitable.
Stocks have continued to rise in April, taking the market to an even more-extreme valuation. While the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, corporate earnings haven’t rebounded from their early-2020 plunge, and in fact continued to decline through Q4-2020 (the latest final EPS available). These trends have brought valuation ratios to an extreme. In its 150-year history, Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, at 37, has been higher only in 1999-2000: ....

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