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Credentials where he's competing with carson and probably cruz. rubio, the intriguing who had kind of, i thought, an okay debate. he was lucky as maggie noted to be exempted from this conversation. rubio is someone who is potentially acceptable to a big chunk of that establishment vote but not as noxious for the outsiders as, say, kasich and bush would be. but i do think you saw kasich putting his cards on the table. the identity he sketched out in the last debate, he really etched much more deeply in this one. i'm going to be the guy who will tell you the hard truths. i'm someone who can gove...

That we didn't see in 2012 with some fof the herman cain, michelmichele bachma bachmann, you have the anti-establishment vote which is about 50% of the gop vote right now. and on the other side, you have the so-called establishment candidates, jeb bush, marco rubio, maybe carly fiorina, john kasich, chris christie, they are fracturing the establishment vote and so none of them are able to get any sort of foothold and that lends itself to ben carson and donald trump continuing to be very strong. >> and even within that establishment ground, you have the likes of ted cruz. you add his polls to t...

Again, to go back to what al said. carson is now the alternative to trump for a lot of voters. again, across demographic groups particularly in iowa where he's doing better than trump is now overall monamongst the evangelicals. jump's support is not confined to one single group. to see, the interesting thing is where is the establishment vote. to be short, trump is getting some of it. it's basically missing. there's not one candidate showing strength. bush's numbers aren't inflated because of the advertiser but where is the advertisement? can it, will it consolidate? >> and the money is not co...

Kasich, rubio, bush. i'm sensing issues with all of them. >> there are issues with all of them. like mark said, you see trump in front, then ben carson in second. carly fiorina and then the establishment vote is split several different ways. it's quite interesting because in the past when it comes to campaign advertisement, usually, you campaign to get on top. now, it's more of a sign that anything that your campaign is in trouble, that you're spending or the super pac is spending all of the money on the air waves, which is the case with bush. >>, ma, today, we had rand paul's campaign put out...

And alex costolas. thanks for being here this morning. i appreciate it. i'll begin with you, alex. how do you suppose republican voters will take donald trump's challenge? >> most of them will not be thrilled tha take off his jersey his team's jersey and put on the other team's jersey in the middle of the game. with his core vote and base and the vote he has now, they will be fine with. that they won't have a problem. it probably won't change his poll numbers very much. he is a protest candidate. his vote right now hates washington. it's an anti-washington establishment vote. he could skin a b...