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FOXNEWS The Journal Editorial Report July 7, 2024

and is a soft landing for the u.s. economy still possible, or are we heading toward a recession? let s ask the chairman and ceo of baird company. jason, nice of you here. lots of turmoil in the financial markets. i wonder what you think they re telling us. is this just the end of easy money with higher rates adjustment and the adjustment to that, or is it something deeper in the economy? i think it primarily is an end to easy money, and the fact really is that the fed has obscured what the rate in the markets has been for 13 year. so there s an adjustment period right now. i think most of the decline in stocks thus far has been associated with higher interest rates and an acknowledgment the that inflation is a little bit more structural. what you haven t seen yet and which is somewhat concerning for us is that you haven t seen earnings expectations for, for many companies come down yet. and so right now it would be hard to say that the market is telling you there s ....

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FOXNEWS The Journal Editorial Report June 4, 2024 19:02:00

Many companies come down yet. and so right now it would be hard to say that the market is telling you there s going to be a recession precisely, but it s certainly moving in that direction. we have the odds at about 50% of a recession in the next 12 months, but they ve been moving higher steadily over the past six months. paul: well, some people, as you know, in the market say that we may already be in a recession. the growth prospects for the send quarter from the atlanta fed now has it at 0. so are you saying that if that would be the case, we re looking at a significant further decline in equities? it s quite possible, paul, because i don t you still have an inflation problem. paul: right. even if we re in the, even if we re in a recession right now, the fed really doesn t have the ability, the real fed funds rate is -7%. ....

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MSNBC Alex Witt Reports June 4, 2024 17:26:00

At this point. this economic climate that you have, inflation rising, interest rates rising, is that a recipe for recession? is there any way to avoid one? it s going to be a tricky time. we have been here in the past, you know, it s usually been at the end of a business cycle and recession is generally what follows. i think we re going to need some pretty deft policy-making by the fed. they re going to have to be very judicious in how they raise interest rates and be flexible in raising rates to not push to quell that inflation, but not push the economy into recession, and alex, to be frank, i think we need a little bit of luck. hopefully the pandemic continues to fade because, you know, that has been very disruptive, and the key reason why inflation is where it is today. all the supply chain issues, and hopefully, you know, russia stands down because if they continue to push and oil prices go higher, it s going to make it all but impossible for the fed to navigate the tarmac ....

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MSNBC Alex Witt Reports June 4, 2024 17:25:00

Raising the interest rates to tamp down inflation, is that the only alternative for the feds? they have other levers to pull, but the biggest one seems to be raising rates, and yet, mark, that has its own other consequences that might not be as desirable. yeah, good point, but the fed really doesn t have a whole lot of tools. i mean, the key tool they have is interest rates, and they re, you know, pushing on the brakes now pretty hard. that s why fixed mortgage rates have gone to 5%, and the higher rates work through the housing market. the housing market is part of the interest rate sensitive part of the economy. it s going to hurt and we see stock prices haven t gone anywhere in part because of what the fed is doing. the fed really has to keep pushing rates up until the economy slows to quell these inflationary pressures. there s really no option here, and i expect them to, you know, kind of follow through on the rate increases that they ve announced they re going to put in place o ....

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MSNBC Alex Witt Reports June 4, 2024 17:27:00

Racehorse. so some deft policy-making and luck. when you say recession, give us a sense of what that means for the average person. i mean, how does how does it affect them? jobs. recession means the economy is going backwards. it s getting smaller. so businesses aren t selling as much of what they produce. they don t need as many workers and they start laying off workers and that feels like a distant possibility at this point given all the jobs and all the unfilled, open positions given the low unemployment rate that s falling, but typically this kind of environment sows the seeds for the economy going into recession, but that s, you know, probably 12, 18 months away if we go there. look, and i don t think we re going to go there, just to be clear. i think the fed is up to the task, and i think they ll be able to navigate it. it ll be bumpy and uncomfortable. it s already uncomfortable. this inflation and these rates are very painful for a lot of americans, but i think we ll ....

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