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"The fuel–climate–fire conundrum: How will fire regimes change in tempe" by Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett et al.

Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate-mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simul ....

Climate Change , Fire Regime , Uel Feedbacks ,

"Future fire regimes increase risks to obligate-seeder forests" by Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett et al.

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate-seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south-eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non-native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate-seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associ ....

Random Forest , Climate Change , Fire Management , Fire Regime ,

Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20181112:19:27:00

They will drive fires. our fuel is very dry because we have a seasonal precipitation regime. we haven t had any precipitation since the winter and we had very high temperatures in the summer. this is all the natural ingredients. i ll tell you what s not natural. we had 15 of our largest record breaking fires since 2000. we had record breaking temperatures over that period. we re getting an earlier fire season. we re getting a hotter drier and the fire season is persisting longer into the winter. it s no coincidence that that increase in temperature which is driven by greenhouse gases is driving these fires. we re facing a new fire regime in the 21st century. ken, when the president complains about poor forestry management out there in california, what s he com complaining about and does it have merit? it s very complex. ....

We Haven T , Fore Fires , Fire Season , Fire Regime , Greenhouse Gases , Northern California , Forestry Management ,