Surging margin debt Margin debt has surged more than 50% over the past 8 months (since March 2020 bottom). All historical cases of such aggressive positioning occurred near 1-2 year market tops. This happened near the start of the 1973-1974, 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 bear markets. The June 1983 historical case was followed by a 1 year-long stock market correction: Oil rig recovery Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith noted that the U.S. oil rig count has stabilized near the lowest level in a decade: Total World Oil & Gas Rig Count paints an even clearer picture: energy supply is at a multi-decade...