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The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,001 low. However, the bears are still active near the $2,040 zone.
The forex markets are currently extending a phase of indecision. Dollar, after briefly rallying against Euro and Swiss Franc, saw its gains diminish. Australian Dollar's initial surge, fueled by optimism over China's proposed stock market rescue plan, also quickly dissipated. Presently, Japanese Yen emerges as the strongest currency for the week, continuing its near-term consolidation. It is closely followed by Dollar and British Pound. On the other end of the spectrum, Australian Dollar is lagging, trailed by Canadian Dollar and Euro.
Sterling rises notably against Euro and Dollar today, buoyed by encouraging UK PMI data that pointed to a strong start for the year with renewed growth momentum. More importantly, this data suggests that BoE might need to delay its rate cut plans, as inflationary pressures could potentially resurge due to supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, Eurozone's PMI data, while less optimistic, also supports ECB hawks' stance against premature rate cuts, with price indicators suggesting sustained inflationary pressures.
Major US stock indexes closed lower overnight, after FOMC minutes revealed Fed might be hesitance to lower interest rates soon. Notably, the likelihood of a March interest rate cut, as inferred from Fed funds futures, dipped below the 70% market following the release of the minutes. Dollar, however, is encountering challenges in gaining further momentum in its near term rebound. This struggle is partly attributed to 10-year Treasury yield's rejection by 4% level. Investors are now turning their attention to today's ADP employment data, though significant market moves are more likely ...
Japanese Yen is facing increased selling pressure today, influenced by the rebound in US and European benchmark treasury yields. Additionally, traders are scaling back their expectations of imminent monetary policy changes by BoJ, in the wake of the recent devastating earthquake in Japan. This context sets the stage for potential downside risks to Yen in the near term, with break of certain support levels possibly leading to a more significant unwinding of long positions.