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Nick Stevens explains process in first volleyball playoff projections Subject: A friend wanted you to see this item from High School OT: https://wr.al/1JYSL HighSchoolOT managing editor Nick Stevens sits down to explain how we projected the volleyball playoff brackets using the new NCHSAA procedures. Show Transcript Hello, everybody. Welcome to high school O T. I am Nick Stevens. And today we are looking ahead to the new NCHS, A playoff procedures and the first edition of our volleyball playoff projections, which we released overnight. So a T. End of this, I ll answer any questions you guys have. You can drop them in the comments, this video, Whether you re watching it on Twitter or Facebook on, I will get to as many of those as I can. This new playoff procedure will be used for all of the sports that we typically seed playoff sport, not just volleyball. So it ll be used for basketball and baseball and softball and soccer and football s Oh, this will be, you know, relevant to a lot of different people. Eso If you have questions, I ll be happy to answer them a Z best as I can. We also are going to go through the playoff projections that we released for volleyball overnight on def. You have specific questions about any of that, or why a team is where they are or why they might be left out or anything like that. I can walk you through those. The only thing I ask is please include the classifications when you ask your question about specific teams, because believe it or not, I can t remember where 400 plus teams are, so we will go ahead and get started. I m going to start by just explaining how the new procedure is going toe work. So, um, this is something that the NCHS A released this week It s a document that you can see on high school OT. This is specific to volleyball, but there is one that is, uh, generic that will be used for all sports on what you see in each classifications is all the conferences listed on each conference is going to get a certain number of automatic bids to the playoffs. Remember, we reduce the size of the playoffs this year by half. So only 32 teams they re gonna make the playoffs from each classification 16 from each region. The conference is, you see, shaded in red. They are in the east region. The conferences you see shaded in blue are in the west region. And don t don t automatically assume that because the team usually goes to the east or usually goes to the West that they are necessarily going to that region. Um, in this new playoff format, so be aware of that, and we will keep moving forward here, and I just lost my mouse. So sorry about that. Here, we owe the This is one day you re looking at here, so once you will notice is under total births. 11 automatic bids, five wild card spots. So each conference gets a number of automatic bids based on the number of teams in that conference. They re participating in that particular sport. So if you have if that conference has between one and six teams participating, um, they get one automatic bid. If they have seven or eight teams participating, they get to if they have nine arm or they get three on. So that s how you see this here. The wild card spots will be determined. Based on the number are the conference winning percentage of the teams who do not get in his automatic bids. So you wanna have a good conference winning percentage and you ll see that just, uh, you ll see that in the actual projections we ve done with volleyball. How that plays out once you get these 16 qualifiers in each region, then they re gonna be put onto a bracket. This pre This is not how we typically do it. So usually when we go to see the bracket or in years past, we ve used Max preps, rankings or adjusted MAXPREPS rankings or even overall winning percentages, throw all that out the window. That is not how it s gonna work this year. Uh, instead, they re going to do random draws and put teams on two lines in the bracket randomly. So how that will work is the first place automatic qualifiers from each conference will be drawn out of a hat first and go on to a line first. And then it will be the second place automatic qualifiers. And then all the wild cards and any third place on my qualifiers will go next and they ll be in a in a place together. So, um, you know, you could have wild cards that are seated ahead of third placed teams on. The good thing about this, um, is that we re gonna be able to avoid conference rematches in the first round, which has been a big sticking point for a lot of people across a lot of sports in recent years. so you can go look at this document on high school ity if you want again. This is specific to the volleyball, but there is one that lays it out more generically across the board for sports. Just know that these we re gonna have to be adjusted each sport because not every conference, not every member of every conference, is playing every sport. And so that s why the NCHS A is releasing it this way. I m not going to go through all of this, um, here, because we re going to see a lot of this in the volleyball, um, projections that were about to go over. But you can go look at this for yourself on high school A t. It s linked there in that main story. So let s get started by looking at the volleyball playoff projections. And if you have not seen them yet, you can go look at them, uh, in depth on your own on high school ot. They are up there now on. We re gonna go through some of them here today as well. Um, and this is, uh this is the spreadsheet that we re using internally. This is not on high school ity. It looks a little cleaner on high school ity for you, but there s a lot more information, uh, in the spreadsheet than than what we publish each ground. So, e, wanna walk you through some of this here and I ll go through each classification. This is for a again. If you have specific questions about any of this you can comment in the video on, I will get to them. Aziz often or as quickly as possible, answers many of them as possible. Um, what you see are all the conferences. Um, all these air for a conference is we re starting with the east and the shaded in blue. The west is in green. These conference standings were lifted off of Maxpreps last night. So if your team did not update your scores last night, you there may be some of these winning percentages. Might be off a little bit, You know, if we re missing data, so make sure you get maxpreps updated. We ll update these again at least once this coming week. Maybe even twice. We ll see. Um So what? We will notice from all the different conferences. Three caps seven is at the top will start with there. So There are seven teams in the cap. Seven. That means they re gonna get to automatic bids. So we look at this, you can see we re gonna go by conference winning percentage. Cardinal Gibbons and Millbrook are the top two teams. By winning percentage, they will be the two automatic bids. As it stands right now and then everybody else is gonna have to hope for it. For a wild card spot, you go down the list of conferences and you do that for each one. Even the split conferences. So, like the Eastern Carolina Conferences, A split conference right now, South Central s ahead of New Bern. Um, 10.667 point 571 So South Central will get in as the one seed out of that split conference before a part of that split conference. You go through the entire list of conferences like that and you get your automatic bids, which is what you see here. So all of the number one automatic bids go in first from each conference. Then all the second place automatic bids go in. Next. There are no third place automatic bids in the for a east or west on DSO here in the West. You can see Here are the number one automatic bids up top the number two and these are wild cards. So that s how we re going to get to the seating products. Get them in qualified in there. Let s look at the wild cards. So this is the east appear these air, All of the teams that did not make the playoffs as at large bids. I m sorry as automatic bids. So these are all the teams that are eligible to make the playoffs as wild card teams in the east, and down here is the West. Um, Now I will caution you. I had a few people reach out to me today and say, Hey, you forgot to try it. Conference Try it. Conference is in the West this year. So when you are looking for try eight teams, you re gonna have to go look at the four a West. That means we could have some Weight County, all Wake County State championships like we had in volleyball a few years ago. Greenup of Panther Creek. So here are the wild cards sorted by their conference winning percentage. That is how we will determine which teams get in as a wild card spots. So you can see in the Foray East. There s gonna be six wild card spots here, Andi, as we sort them. This is how it breaks out. The team shading green would be the ones who make it in order of first last. And then the red team s air left out in order. The first teams left out to the last teams to be considered. So Ashley Hoggard brought in Heritage Jack, Brit, Lumberton ER in from the Foray East, New Bern and Wake Forest are tied for the first team left out, and I should mention Jack Britain. Lumberton are tied for the last, the next. The last team in Come down to the four a West Davey green level Hickory Ridge, Mallard Creek and Carrie are the the wild card teams carries The last team in. Grimsley is the first team out tied with Barry Academy and Butler. So you can kind of see how the bubble is gonna take shape here, and we re publishing all this on high school OT on. We ll publish Maurin depth as we get closer to the end of the season so you can see that bubble even more clearly. So all of our wild card teams, once they re determined, go into this little region of the list of qualifiers. See, it s 11 to 16 in the East and in the West that seats 12 through 16. So they have one fewer wildcard spot in the West. These these will be placed on a bracket. After all, the first place in second place automatic qualifiers are placed and again that s gonna be done randomly Withdraw from the C h s. A and they will do it in an effort to eliminate first round rematch is a conference opponent. So we will not be projecting brackets. It s impossible. So if you see people projecting brackets just know they re wrong. Um, it s not possible to project a bracket out of this new format. You can Onley project who is going to qualify and who is gonna have priority in terms of getting into a bracket. So that s all we re gonna be doing this year. Um, this is specific for 2020 2021 because of Kobe 19 and the reduction of games reduction of a number of teams in the playoffs by half we. This is not necessarily what will be the case for the new realignment? But we do know that the playoff formats gonna change a lot in that realignment, too. So it would make sense that maybe the NCHS A is testing some things out to see how they work for that. We don t know that they have not said that. But for now, just know that this is on Lee for this year. I ll take you over to the three A projections, and we will look at three wild card race there again that that s what these projections they re gonna be best for this year is looking at the wild card race and seeing which teams are on the bubble. You can see in the three. A East Jacksonville is in, followed by Terry Sanford, then jh rose. And then here we have fighting Harnett Central fighting hard. It s central are tied at 30.75 for the last spot into the playoffs. So one of if this holds if this were to hold and we all know that these were going to change multiple times in the next couple weeks. But if this scenario were to hold, there would be a random draw for the last spot into the playoffs, either. If I could get in heart, Central, be left out or heart Central would get in and fight would be left out. So that is something that you know again, we ll have to watch. As these projections continue, Thio get clearer as we go through the next couple of weeks, you can see here. After that. There s a four way tie for the second team out between Franklin s in the East, Chapel Hill, Eastern Alabama and Cape Fear. So there s a tight race. There is, well, all these teams not out of it. But one thing I do want to point out, you know, we talked about a lot of times in the past. We ve talked about teams that are under 500 getting into the playoffs. That is not really happening unless you re gonna be from a split conference. That s not really happening. Look at all these teams left out with better than 500 records. I mean, Harnett Central is winning 3/4 of its games right now and is sitting on the outside or fight one of the two sitting on the outside looking in, so they re gonna be some really good teams left out of the playoffs this year. Go down to the three West Hickories, Southwest, Guilford, South Iredell or the last teams in a zoo. Wild cards. Only three wild card spots in the 38 West Marvin Ridge. The first team out again. Look at that winning percentage in conference. They re winning 3/4 of their games. They are the first team out. Forest View follows Marvin Ridge, then West, Rohan and Cuff Person. Our next, they re tied at 6 to 5 and then to Scala at 556 So that is where the bubble stands in the three a West I ll show you these seating priorities. Here. There are a number of ties in the three. A East. You can see West Carter. It in Jacksonville are tied for that one spot in their conference, so that will be a that will. That won t stay. That likely won t be the case of the end of season, but if it were, there would be a draw to determine who gets the first place. Um, spot out of that, though. Whoever loses that draw would drop down here to a wild card spot. Have to hope to get in that way. Jh, Rose and Conley Same thing here in their conference tied for that number one spot out of the three a part of their split conference. Whoever loses that would drop down here into the wild card. So we re gonna have situations this year where we have teams who are tied for first place in their conference and they end up missing the playoffs, which is kind of wild in the three West you can see here the seeds one through eight are the first place automatic qualifiers, Then second place automatic qualifiers. There is one third place automatic qualifier in the three West that is North Henderson on then all of the wild cards underneath that hickory selfless Guilford South Iredell Onda again. You can look at these full projections on high school A. T. If you want a more in depth look at that, let s go to the to a Yeah, this one is really crazy. The two a East Wild Cards East Duplin and Durham School, the arts are currently the to walk hard teams that we have in with undefeated conference prayers so that, you know, again, I don t I don t know that that would even be possible for that to to hold it wouldn t because they re gonna have to play the other undefeated teams in their conferences at some point. But that kind of illustrates the fact that you know they re gonna be some really good teams left out as well as I ve been saying, South Columbus, the first team out of the playoffs at 0.833 winning percentage. That is crazy, Dixon at 0.8, Southland or South, Granville and Randleman all come in next. 2.667 Only two wild card spots in the tube A east to a west, only one wild card spot. And there are four teams tied for that one spot. So again, if that were to hold, then those four teams would be part of a random draw. They d have a 25% shot of getting in that last spot, so you can see it s gonna be one of those four Franklin West tired. L mt Pleasant or Bandes after that, A Central Davidson late Norman charter. So, um, you know, again these air, what these projections they re gonna be best for is following these wildcard races. I ll show you the seating over here for the two. A East. Um, here are the first place automatic qualifiers at the top. Seeds one through 10, 10, 11 through 14 in the second place automatic qualifiers. And again, notice all these ties. Um, the conference with midway gold, Bernie Stupid. And there s a three way tie for first place there. So this could be where you see Midway. This could be Goldsborough. It could be East Duplin where you see Goldsborough. Here. This could be a midway. It could be East Duplin where you see East Duplin a wildcard. This could be midway. This could be Goldsborough. There s a lot to follow in that conference down the stretch. Scarborough and de Esa also tied in conference right now. Unbeaten records. Eso where you see Scarborough could be de Esa and I could drop car broke down to a wild card spot. Uh, you know, these are all things that are that we have to watch over the course of the next few weeks. Is the season gets sorted out? Same for rifle on ST Paul s, although they get to automatic bids so the loser would not drop down to a wild card spot there. West Region. A little cleaner. You can see one through nine for the first place automatic qualifiers. MAWR. Second place automatic qualifiers. Five in the to a West there exceeds 10 through 14, and then the two wild car. I m sorry. There s a third place automatic qualifier, West Davidson and then the one wild card spot where we have Franklin right now. But it s a tie. West Arundel Mount Pleasant Bandy s um so one of those four would get at Alright, finally won. A. We will look at the wild card situation here in the one a East. There will be five wild card spots have one. A East East Wake Academy currently in Camden in, and then a three way tie for the last three spots. They will all get in in this projection, anyway. Bear Grass, Charter News Charter and Riverside Um, with 0.667 winning percentage, is the first team out Roxborough community with a 0.6 conference record. Our conference winning percentage followed by South Creek and then a tie between Gates advanced charter and then Rosewood at a 0.4 winning percentage in conference. So that s where the East bubble is in one day and then the west. There will be two wild card spots out of one, a west east Surrey in as, ah, as the first wild card at 10.857 Then Elkin, at 0.778 is the last team in Mount Airy and community school. Davidson are tied for the first spot out Mount Airy on preschool, Davis and both 750 winning percentages in their respective conferences, followed by Robbinsville in Christ, the King at 7500.714 and then Highlands at 0.667 So that s the bubble in the one A. West and I will bring it over to the seating, and you can check this out here a little. I ll show you this north edge comb situation. You ll you ll notice that there s no results here. I have. I need to figure out what s going on in that conference. It says that there are two teams participating on the NCHS, a document I can find no evidence of a second time participating on Maxpreps, though, So if anybody watching knows what s going on, um, in the Tar Road, a conference be helpful. You can reach out to me on Twitter. Email me in Steven s wrl dot com. Um, but so right now, it looks like North Edge Comb is the only team playing in that conference, which, based on the current guidelines from the H S A would would mean that they get an automatic bid. So that s why you might see a little discrepancy here. Um, in this west. Excuse me. West, Columbus and East Columbus are both winless in their coffee, and they re part of their conference. Um, the one a part of their split conference. So they re technically tied. The winner would get in. The loser would not in this projection. So we will. That s one thing we ll have to watch. Here you go. Seats 10 and 11 are the second place on that qualifiers, followed by the wild cards down here, which we just went over on. Then we will go through the one a west You can see Murphy, they re tied for first place. Both interview with Rosman. So that could be, uh that ll be something to watch. Here. You can see this. Whoever loses that will get a second place automatic bid on this projection. Same thing when they re standing. You are a charter. Whoever loses that one will get the second place automatic bid on that one. There is one third place automatic bid in the one a West that s Graystone Day and then the two wild card spots out of the one a West, so you can check all this out on high school. O t dot com. They re all published there. We will be updating these again at least one more time this week, maybe even twice. We ll see how many results come in and again we ll update after Christmas before the new year and then probably two times at least maybe three. The first week of January, which is the last week of the regular season for volleyball. Volleyball brackets come out on January 9th Saturday and then the games start the following week. It ll be a five round playoff with over two weeks eso to be convinced playoff, but it will be. Should be a lot of fun. A lot of volleyball talent, Um, in this state, eso let s go to some questions. Looks like there s only one question in here right now. If you have other questions anybody wants to know about their specific school. Their specific situation. Um, if there s if you have questions about the process in general, you can go ahead and ask those, type them in on the video on Facebook or Twitter, and I will answer them. But right now, on Lee one and it comes from Erin who ask any word on where they might play state finals. Um, so we actually ask this question of Commissioner Que Tucker during a press conference? Um, gosh, that was two weeks ago. Now I guess it feels like it was just just yesterday. Andi. She said that they do not have the location set yet. Part of the problem is the places that they typically play. These events don t necessarily want to bring outside people in right now because of Kobe. 19 eso they are working on that on. I would imagine that we would have some information from the SHS A relatively soon, maybe after the new year. I don t know that for sure, but I mean, we would have to know eventually, right, because of the playoffs or starting. So I would suspect we ll have some information soon about that. Uh, if anybody else has other questions. Go ahead and send them in, and I will answer them. I ll give you a few more seconds to get those type. Um, again, Go to high school o t dot com. You can check out all of the playoff projections. There will be updating them frequently. I also have a column up that kind of walks you through the process of the new playoff procedures. Eso you can read through that? We have links to other, uh, documents released by the NCHS A that help explain this even Mawr. And we ll be doing more of these videos over the course of the next few weeks as we do these playoff projections for volleyball to get information out there and answer some questions. So, um, I ll tell you, what I can do is show you on high school of tea right now where you can find some of this information. Um, and let s see if I can get this open for you. We will go Thio High School of tea. I ll take this full screen eso you can see right now. Anyway, it is at the very top of the screen. This is where they will live the whole time, and you ll be able to see this on the front page of high school OT throughout the process, where you can read through some of the information here about how the playoffs are determined. Here is my column about how the playoff brackets are working this year. There s a lot of information in here on goes very, very much in the detail. Also, talks about the football subdivisions football playoffs will still be subdivided, uh, this year, so that will, um, that will be the last time for now on Dhere. Some or, um, there s more things that are from the NCHS a that are useful in this process. I was telling you about the generic playoff procedure That s right there. You can check that out. That applies to all sports. The volleyball specific one is up here. And then, of course, down here, you can see thes specific playoff projections for each classification, and this is where we will be updating them over the course of the next few weeks, along with the bubble here at the bottom where the wild cards are listed and the first five teams out will be expanding that over the coming weeks though, to include more teams. So that is all. I don t see any more questions coming in a zoo always, though if you do have other questions, you can send them to me on Twitter and Nick Stevens H S O T. I will answer as many as I can there, as always. So thanks for joining us for this special live video here on high school ot. Enjoy the playoff projections. Enjoy the holidays. Be safe. Everybody. And we re looking forward to the volleyball playoffs in a few weeks when we get back from the new year, have a good one.
Explaining three eastern regions in NCHSAA realignment Tags: Updated December 14, 2020 2:06 p.m. EST By J. Mike Blake, HighSchoolOT contributor Forgive me if I boast that the NCHSAA s conferences were what we told everyone they would be: radically different. That s why we didn t do projections on them. We didn t know what rules they d be going by, but we knew things would have to change. If the conferences caught you by surprise, you have to ask yourself: did you stop to realize what this year, the 2020-21 one, is going to be? It s going to be a year with schools collecting next-to-no gate money via ticket sales. The lifeblood of athletics has been throttled down to a slow drip.