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The dovish Fed pivot is still alive that may indirectly put downside pressure on JPY carry trades, AUD/JPY worst performer

The Japanese yen is on a bumpy path towards strengthening after Friday's central bank policy change, threatening to upend the carry trade, one of this year's most popular strategies, as the currency inevitably becomes more expensive. The BOJ kept its short-term interest rate target below zero, but shook markets by adjusting a policy that had effectively capped the 10-year government bond yield at 0.5%. The wild swings in the yen, which saw its most volatile trading day for months, reflect the initial confusion among traders and investors about what this might mean.

Some still hold positions but an appreciating renminbi may make them less profitable for now

Dwindling cash in Hong Kong’s banking system puts pressure on banks to offer higher rates to attract deposits, putting them on the path to raise their prime rates on May 4.

An end to what threatened to become the worst-ever drawdown for the yen would be welcomed in Japan, where higher import costs are weighing on a post-pandemic recovery.