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Domestic gas prices of about USD2.9/mcf on average until 2024
Upstream production ramping up to above 60kboe/d in 2023
Dividends of about USD59 million a year up to 2024
Fitch’s Key Assumptions for Recovery Analysis:
The recovery analysis assumes that Seplat would be reorganised as a going-concern (GC) in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
Seplat’s post-reorganisation, going-concern EBITDA is estimated at around USD223 million, based on the current asset base. A drop in EBITDA to the going-concern level reflects risks associated with hydrocarbon price volatility, potential unplanned downtime and other adverse factors
We have applied a distressed enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA multiple of 4.5x to calculate a going-concern EV, reflecting a mid-cycle multiple for the natural resources sector in the EMEA region and the risks associated with the operating environment in the country of operation. ....

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