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More likely to vote in 20 when the 2020, if you are progressive and provide a true contrast. can you win. that can potentially help them. >> that brings us to arizona, mcsally running against two trump like candidates, she is walking a fine line. do you think she moves closer to the middle? arizona is a red state. president trump won there. >> look, martha mcsally is different than ron desantis. she has a much more moderate voting record. on the democratic side of the aisle, she has a mod cat record. so arizona is the complete opposite of florida. in arizona you have what we normally think is ...

I want to go to steve kornacki. as you can see on the bottom of the screen, we are now getting those results in arizona. steve, tell us what we know. >> this is the way it works in arizona. they come in in giant bunches. what you see right now, maricopa county in the phoenix area, more than half the votes in the entire state comes out of here. what you're looking at is the early vote, the vote that was cast before election day in maricopa county. the vast majority of the vote is mcsally. that will come out of the largest county in arizona. so this is a very significant total of all of those in...

What you are looking at is the vast majority of the vote that will come out of the largest county in arizona. so this is a very significant chunk of all of the vote that will be in the primary. you see mcsally running very comfortably ahead. kelly ward, joe arpaio, together, they are getting 48%, but they are splitting it up so much, that mcsally took a 23 point lead right there. we can tell you when kelly ward ran against mccain in 2016, she did better in the same day vote than she did in the early vote. the issue there was so much of it was early vote and it just didn't erase much of it. she...

Mcsally. that will come out of the largest county in arizona. so this is a very significant total of all of those in the primary. you see mcsally running very comfortably ahead. carrie ward, joe arpaio. together they're getting around 20%. we can tell you when carrie ward ran against john in 2019, she did better in the same day vote than she did in the early vote. the issue there was so much of it was early vote and it just didn't erase much of it. he was able to shave probably five points total off that early vote. in the same day, ward and arpaio would probably do a little