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Increase In Core Inflation Won't Be Transitory Bad Timing For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the economy entered a recession causing the Fed to slash the federal funds rate. This pattern is consistent especially with benefit of hindsight. The one exception was in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait causing oil prices to spike and a brief war. Please...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Monthly Report 01 June 2021

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 24 May 2021

Four Tailwinds Set To Fade Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 03 May 2021 Four tailwinds developed after the Pandemic effectively shut down the U.S. economy. These tailwinds allowed the stock market to look forward rather than focusing solely on the widespread economic dislocation the Pandemic caused. The Federal Reserve slashed its policy rate to 0%, opened special facilities to provide liquidity to market sectors that were shutting down, and expanded its balance sheet from $4 trillion to $7 trillion. Congress quickly passed the $2 trillion Cares Act in March 2020 and the $484 billion Payc...

Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 15 March 2021 Before the end of the first quarter the financial markets are likely to be buffeted by several factors. The Federal Reserve meets on March 16 and March 17 and will provide its quarterly assessment of the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, with Chair Powell answering questions in the post FOMC meeting press conference. Pension funds will rebalance their portfolios to maintain their 60% / 40% allocation to equities and bonds. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Many funds are likel...