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UNTIL it arrived, 2020 was seen by many as a symbol of the future. It was a benchmark and distant date with destiny – aided by phrases like “2020 vision”. But 2020 didn’t feel like the future that had been predicted – or like any other year. This is a salutary lesson. Much of the future is always surprising, unimagined and unpredictable – while other parts are predictable or “inevitable surprises”.
To think, dream and conceive of the future is part of what it is to be human. Yet, conventional futures thinking (what used to be called “futurology”) tends to miss much as it contains such a narrow set of assumptions. There is an over-propensity to prioritise order and rationality, a ­belief in the efficacy of models and predictions, and now – with unparalleled computer capacity – there is a faith in algorithms as a substitute for reality. ....

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