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From the blog of Sheldon Kirshner at The Times of Israel

Stimulus: Band-Aid on a Tumor If we misdiagnose the disease, our treatment won’t work. We’re all familiar with medical misdiagnoses, which lead to procedures and prescriptions that can’t possibly fix the patient’s illness because the source has been missed or misinterpreted. Medical diagnoses are often tricky, as many general symptoms can arise from a variety of sources. Social and economic ills can also be tricky to diagnose, and the diagnosis is hindered by political polarization and sacrosanct orthodoxies which make it difficult to have a rational discussion in public about many di...

Many people have heard of Nassim Taleb’s  black swan but fewer understand how few events qualify as  black swans. Per Wikipedia,  a black swan is an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences, an event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. Taleb’s black swan theory refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in hist...

How the Fed Fails Gamed speculation — using knowledge of how markets can be pushed to profit those doing the pushing — has long been decried. Declaring that the unproductive profiteering of greedy speculators will be the death of the Republic goes back to Rome, and in American history, to Alexander Hamilton’s battle in 1791 to pay the speculators who had bought up the new nation’s war bonds for pennies on the dollar full value plus interest. Gamed speculation — and the cheery presumption that there will always be a liquid market of chumps willing to buy insiders’ pumped-up balloon...

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero