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The forces currently at play to usher in the new financial cycle

Our capital market assumptions model prospective returns over the next 10 years being half those realised over the past 10 years – Iain Cunningham, co-head of the Multi-Asset Growth Fund at Ninety One. ....

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Ninety One moves long-standing multi-asset head to research team

Philip Saunders, co-head of multi-asset growth for the past two decades, has moved to the Ninety One Investment Institute. ....

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Global investing: Misdirection and market narratives

This move has triggered and has been reinforced by a shift in narrative. Concerns about economic relapses, which had dominated market narratives, have been replaced by concerns about inflation from rapidly recovering economies in the short term and an upward shift in fiscal spending over the longer term. In reality, much of the coverage has conflated the near-term and medium-term issues. In the near-term, sharply rising headline inflation numbers in the United States and elsewhere are actually largely the mechanistic result of low base effects of extremely weak inflation a year or so ago.
The medium-term question is whether the rise in long-term rates reflects growing evidence that, led by the Biden administration, we would be entering a new policy regime which would give pride of place to sustained deficit spending to boost median incomes. This would be occurring in a context where the world was adjusting to arguably less free trade, certainly more regulation, and monet ....

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