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Mohamed ElErian explains how to recalibrate expectations in the face of yet another forecasting failure

Policymakers must acknowledge that we are operating in a more supply-constrained world to avoid prematurely ending the US’s exceptional economic run

CAMBRIDGE/MILAN — India’s recent economic success, solid momentum and promising prospects are making the country ever more influential both regionally and internationally. But the experience of other countries, most notably China over the last three decades, suggests that such rapid influence and robust progress can be tricky to manage. After all, an action that makes sense

Mohamed El-Erian explains why economists and investors are far too optimistic about America's near-term prospects

CAMBRIDGE — Behavioural economists have popularised the term “recency bias” to describe our tendency to be disproportionately influenced by the latest events compared to earlier ones. Could this cognitive phenomenon explain why numerous analysts have a rather optimistic tilt for the world economy in 2024? Or are there really positive trends counterbalancing the obvious and