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Newsnight

all of us trying to work out when the election will be held are obviously watching what's happening with the economy. last year saw soaring interest rates to deal with spiking inflation. by the end of 2023, the pm was able to say he had achieved his promise of halving inflation. so what does 2024 hold for the uk economy? in a moment, we'll talk live to the economics editor of the times, mehreen khan, and pauljohnson, director of the independent institute for fiscal studies, about what will be important to voters when it comes to the economy. first, here's ben on how things are looking here, plus with key elections across the world in 2024, the global economy too. we've been in an economic storm for much of these past 15 years, searching desperately for a safe harbour. but what will 2024 bring for households, for businesses, for the global trading system which underpins our living standards? a ray of hope or more of the same?

Labour-market , Election , Uk , Interest-rates , Inflation , Halving-inflation , All , The-end , Promise , Hold , Saw , 2024

The Daily Global

essentially the message we are gliding from the cpr. very good to have urinalysis _ gliding from the cpr. very good to have urinalysis there. _ gliding from the cpr. very good to have urinalysis there. paul- gliding from the cpr. very good to l have urinalysis there. pauljohnson, thank you. we do hope later to speak to a member of the unions in this story. a bbc investigation that casts further doubt on the greek coastguard's account of the migrant boat sinking in the mediterranean a month ago. it's estimated that up to 750 people, mostly from pakistan, syria and egypt, were on board when the boat capsized on 1ajune. 104 people survived but only 82 bodies have been recovered. two survivors of the disaster say migrants were silenced and intimidated by greek authorities, after suggesting the coastguards may have been to blame for the tragedy. here's nick beake from bbc verify. new footage of the fatal journey — the packed migrant boat leaning precariously. bbc verify has confirmed this video is genuine. here's why. look at the much bigger vessel in the background. we've identified it

Unions , Investigation , Pauljohnson , Paul-gliding , Urinalysis , Message , Cpr , Bbc , Doubt , Greek , Member , Story

The Daily Global

that question posed by our political editor, chris mason. let's get more now with pauljohnson, director of the institute for fiscal studies, the leading economic research group. thank you for making time to talk to us. a bunch of difficult choices there. just your response to what there. just your response to what the government has decided to do, of course, the big question being where is this money going to come from? i think the government in the end, has made the right choice to implement the pay review body recommendations. that is the have it they have hung themselves on for the last year. don't forget to is next year's pay rise. the public sector workers in question have all had pretty big real pay cuts this year. this is for next year, and even if you put the two years together, teachers and nurses and so on will be worse off at the end of this than they were 18 months ago because put the two years together and they don't match

Question , Pauljohnson , Chris-mason , Institute-for-fiscal-studies , Economic-research-group , Government , Money , Course , Choices , Response , Bunch , The-end

Politics Live

of the gig economy and acceleration of artificial intelligence, it is clearly working environment will need overhauled. will this government wake up to the reality of the situation and instruct both the dwp and hmrc to engage with these pilots so we can constructively assess the pros and cons and work to safeguard a less precarious future for the next generation? mr speaker, the government _ for the next generation? mr speaker, the government and _ for the next generation? mr speaker, the government and i _ for the next generation? mr speaker, the government and i have _ for the next generation? mr speaker, the government and i have never - for the next generation? mr speaker, | the government and i have never been convinced about the case for a universal basic income. we are not alone in that. it is also the position of pauljohnson of the iss. i think a much better solution is to create morejobs, which this government has done, and cut taxes on working people, which is what this government has done. that is the route for prosperity for people up the route for prosperity for people up and down the country. revitalising and regenerating town centres and helping torbay�*s high—tech sector would deliver a levelling up for torbay. what

Government , Situation , Acceleration , Environment , Gig-economy , Pilots , Artificial-intelligence , Reality , Dwp , Hmrc , Speaker , Mr

Outside Source

minister of state for pensions. people are being quite shocked because — people are being quite shocked because we got so used to the idea that tax— because we got so used to the idea that tax breaks on pensions would be cut every— that tax breaks on pensions would be cut every year and prior to everybody, there was speculation of taxing _ everybody, there was speculation of taxing limits and so on, and year after— taxing limits and so on, and year after year. — taxing limits and so on, and year after year, this is a screeching u-lum — after year, this is a screeching u—turn. partly driven by the doctors _ u—turn. partly driven by the doctors. there is an argument that says senlor— doctors. there is an argument that says senior doctors have been retiring — says senior doctors have been retiring early because of taxes and he seems — retiring early because of taxes and he seems to have dealt with that problem — let's get the verdict of the influential institute for fiscal studies. its director, pauljohnson, has told the bbc that he does not think these measures will be effective in getting people back into the workforce. he's tweeted that the pension reform... the obr has said that "the increase in labour supply —

People , Speculation , Pensions , Tax , Idea , Tax-breaks , Steve-webb , Everybody , Doctors , Argument , Limits , Screeching-u-turn

Outside Source

changing anytime soon. michael, director of _ changing anytime soon. michael, director of south _ changing anytime soon. michael, director of south asia _ changing anytime soon. michael, director of south asia institute . changing anytime soon. michael, | director of south asia institute at the wilson centre, thank you very much for your thoughts. don't go away. stay with us here on bbc news. hello there. it's been a week of big temperature swings — we started off monday with very mild air. tuesday and wednesday has been quite cold, but milder air will be pushing back in for tomorrow. first signs of change — this area cloud you can see working in across lincolnshire, and that weather watcher picture, well, that's this cloud pushing in across the uk at the moment. and the air is particularly mild to our southwest — that'll be coming our way overnight tonight and into tomorrow as well. now, maximum temperatures willjump upwards, from the 7—8 celsius many of us saw today to around 14—15 celsius tomorrow. a jump of around 7 celsius for some, so you will notice that change to much milder weather. that transition takes

Pauljohnson , Bbc-news , Director , Michael-kugelman , Stay , Thoughts , South , South-asia-institute , South-asia , South-asia-institute-at-the-wilson-centre , Don-t-go-away , Air

Outside Source

khan. he didn't turn out to multiple court appearances. imran khan said he was worried about his own safety. you've heard today from the minister of information for prudentjob that the police operation has been temporary suspended —— punjab. this sort of disruption has met the city... sort of disruption has met the ci ~ , :, , , protesters chanting. uzair younus is the director of the pakistan initiative at the us think tank, the atlantic council. he says the authorities often use pakistan's love of cricket to deal with political problems. cricket has become a convenient excuse over the last few days in lahore, first to stop imran khan and his political party from having their rallies, which is their constitutional

Imran-khan , Safety , Court-appearances , Police-operation , Minister-of-information , Prudentjob , Punjab , City , Disruption , Protesters-chanting , Sort , Pakistan

BBC News

enormous amount in the short run. 0ther enormous amount in the short run. other than to avoid my silly mistakes. but you can do is lay the foundations for better growth of it in medium and longer by getting those policies right, by getting some stability. am i thinking about the things that really do matter over the long term, getting our institutional framework right to me getting the tax estimate can make it in the planning system right, getting trade with the eu much closer and better than we've got at the moment, house—building, all of those things that we know are good for the economy, but they all take a significant period to bear fruit. for the economy, but they all take a significant period to bearfruit. irate significant period to bear fruit. we have to leave it there. pauljohnson there with the iss. the number of executions in saudi arabia has almost doubled under the kingdom's current leadership, according to new research. that's despite promises of reform from the crown prince and the de facto leader, mohammed bin salman. a report by the campaign group reprieve, shared exclusively with the bbc ahead of application,

It , Growth , Amount , Run , Policies , Mistakes , Foundations , 0 , All , Things , Matter , Eu

BBC News

top stories this afternoon, the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, that is worse than any other major advanced nation. we can speak now to pauljohnson, director of the institute for fiscal studies, a leading economic research group. that afternoon to you. why is it that the uk sticks out in this way? what are the specific factors that the uk is the on the economy to shrink in 2023 of the major economies as i think the first thing to say is these projections need to be taken with a bit of salt, i suspect this scented —— this isn't exactly how it will pan out, and be used to projections from a couple of months ago when things looks rather worse for the uk, we are going to get a new set, another set of forecasts on thursday from that bank of england, which will look still

Economy , Uk , Afternoon , Stories , Prediction , International-monetary-fund , 0-6 , Dutch-barge , Factors , Pauljohnson , Institute-for-fiscal-studies , Nation

Outside Source

to get growth this year. we'll be lucky to be growing by 2024, so there's not much specific in that. what the prime minister said about inflation is reallyjust repeating the bank of england's own forecaster on inflation, inflation we all expect to halve by the end of this year. so, it's not really a pledge, it'sjust a restatement of a forecast. this is partly the result of steep rises in energy, fuel, and food prices not being repeated again this year. rishi sunak�s second and third pledges, growing the economy by creating better paid jobs and opportunity across the country and seeing the national debt fall to secure the future of public services, do not have a time frame attached. here�s pauljohnson again. will in most experts believe that it

Rishi-sunak , Inflation , Bank-of-england , Specific , Growth , Forecaster , 2024 , Result , Forecast , Pledge , Fuel , Energy