Will US Data Bring Pre-Christmas Joy to the Dollar?
The transition to monetary easing could be a hot theme in 2024. Global central banks excluding the Bank of Japan were more or less synchronized in their battle against high inflation following the pandemic price shock, delivering the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in decades. It’s still uncertain if this disinflation is mainly a result of normalizing supply chains or indeed because of tighter financial conditions (or both). In any case, inflation reacted in the right way, cooling substantially from its highs without causing a significant increase in the unemployment rate in 2023.