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Barack obama did incredibly well in wisconsin. ran way ahead of pattern. in fact, ran better than any democrat really since lyndon johnson in 1964. he won't do that well, but the important thing to remember is that in this battleground state, history and the patterns that i'm looking at right now would suggest that when all is said and done, obama will probably, as every democrat since 1988 has done, narrowly win the state. >> will probably win it, but by not a margin as large. >> and that's why he's got to come in. one of the things about wisconsin is that although it's a smaller state, it's ...

In play now because the romney campaign looked at the polling in pennsylvania, looked at the polling in ohio, and as you've said, we can't win there, we may have a shot here. is that what you think is happening? >> in some ways, i think that is happening. surprising to me that two months out from a campaign that the romney campaign isn't playing in michigan. this is a state where he was born. not playing in pennsylvania. i think it has to do with the auto bailout and him not being able to explain his position there. i think they have room to run in wisconsin. it's because paul ryan does have a...

Trail that could have some big implications. this weekend president obama added a new state to his campaign schedule, there it is. wisconsin. he will be going to milwaukee saturday. there hasn't been much recent polling from the badger state, but the move could be an indication that the obama campaign believes that the race is tightening there. it's a state that the president won by 14 points back in 2008. with me now, john nichols, national correspondent for the nation. and our reporter from ""the washington post."" you were on the ground there in wisconsin. what are you seeing, what are you ...

Ryan's presence on the ticket? >> well, it has everything, i think, to do with his presence on the ticket. you see him obviously running ads there for his congressional seat. of course, you saw biden do the same thing when he was running as vice president and having that seat in delaware. the democrats say this is a state within the margin of error. they look at other states like ohio and florida and see those states have gone beyond the margin of error in those polls. that's obviously why they're sending in president obama. they may send in the big dog, former president bill clinton, as well....

Campaign but they gave us a heads-up that the event was canceled. it happened at the result of an experimental plane that crashed earlier this morning where one person was killed and ended up closing two runways. as long as it's under investigation the campaign didn't want to interfere with the emergency response efforts that take place there. clearly that's going to have an impact when a candidate comes into town with all the security he would draw. romney heads off to the state of california, which won't be a competitive state but will speak to a hispanic group. right now he's losing among...