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The Australian dollar hovered near its lowest in six weeks after a surprise fall in employment in December, reinforcing expectations that the cash rate has peaked.
A tight jobs market and stubborn inflation prompt economists to pencil in a September rate cut. But nine economists say the RBA may raise rates again next month.
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of 36 economists puts the first post-pandemic rate cut in play by February 2024, a quarter tip it could happen this year.
Home owners can expect house prices to stop falling mid-year, but only after the Reserve Bank of Australia ends its fastest monetary tightening in 30 years, and they will have to wait longer before property prices start rising.
Although a minority of economists say the RBA will start cutting interest rates in 2023, there are two further increases expected before its tightening cycle ends.