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Everybody missed, 65 plus, they went plus 16 in 2014 for republicans, plus 2 this year. why? because they have been around, and you talk to these republican voting 65 plus senior citizens, who are saying, you know, i normally vote republican but i'm embarrassed at what is going on in this country. >> yeah, they adon -- don't wano be associated with it. >> you and i have been talking about years and years of the increasing diversity of the electorate. minority voters tend to be younger. the reason it's harder to turn them out is they're young. millennials are the largest cohort in the american ...

Plus 2, going either way. this is going to be the race i watch, whether this blue wave hits a red wall, whether the redwall will hit the blue wave. if democrats can pick up that kind of seed, they will have a very good night. >> they sent three cabinet secretaries to campaign for bar barr, and they put in some effort to try to get him across the finish line. that is an interesting race to watch because it is one that people focused on early. >> i always talk about how politics are all local, president trump tried to make this all about national politics, but the far left wing's attention, they...

Think we can be as high as 56 seats on election night. and i think we have a greater and greater chance of keeping the house. it may be slim but i feel good about it. brian: look back to 2016 and see how the polls were very close but they were wrong. bloomberg had hillary plus 3. you had reuters had hillary plus 5. mcclatchy hillary plus 2. when it comes to popular vote they were right. electoral, the way you play this game they were wrong. >> the fundamental way that things have shifted in the last few years is that the data on voters has gotten much better. you know who has voted and who has...

Are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that's based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but -- and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it's actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won't ...