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Trump's approval among white women with no college education, almost half would vote for a generic democrat over trump. he's minus six among noncollege white women, despite a plus 27-point margin in that demographic in 2016. that is a big swing. heidi and the table are back. doug, i will start with you since you're a new voice at the table. you're sitting there democratic consultant and looking at the numbers of president trump and saying, man, slam dunk, we got this in the bag or that guy pulled an inside straight in 2016 and we have to be careful? >> i'm looking at the number that shows appr...

Signature issue and yet opposition to the wall has grown in reaction to trump. if you look back in 2015 in our polling on this question of the attitude towards free trade, basically free trade was a plus 10 issue. this is as donald trump was getting into the presidential race, now couple of years later, couple of years into the trump administration as you show in that poll it's a plus 27 issue. i think part has to do with the reaction to what you're showing with the tariffs here. again, one of the ironies i think in politics. this happens if you have a democratic or a republican president. the...

Have predicted it would have come from one of the republicans who stopped to think in more moderate directions like mitt romney. here it is coming from someone who's on the far right in most policy issues. >> you know, lawrence, where sympathize with justin here because i wrote my book about trump as a critique from the right. and all these people were -- all the trump guys are shocked by that but there's a critique by him from the right. most that would have been from the center, those suburban districts because donald trump is political cancer, he destroyed all their political careers. they ...

And all these people were -- all the trump guys are shocked by that but there's a critique by him from the right. most that would have been from the center, those suburban districts because donald trump is political cancer, he destroyed all their political careers. they either quit or lost in 2016. most of those people were the suburban moderates. they were the people in the suburbs of virginia and charlotte and other places. they're gone now. so the safe seat guys in the r plus 27 districts are still there, and they're all in. and so i think there's a little bit of shell shock right now from ...

You have 18 to a net at this hour of 23. 20 officially gifves them control. they are very close to crossing that line of 23, and then the question becomes how high are we going in terms of majority? >> i see you have a couple suspects in iowa that you don't still have grossman. >> let's see where this is coming in from. this is a trump plus 27 district here. this is the most conservative part of iowa, sort of northwest iowa right there. steve king leading by about 5,000 votes, about a third of the vote. one more we could just -- david young trailing by 8 points, a 0