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Well, you know, i go where the brave dare not tread. >> bless you. >> but look at the numbers. as i said, all throughout, when i talked to mcauliffe people, they said this was a two point race, all in the last few weeks. they put 100% of their money, cuccinelli. he was finally in the last week on obama care. everybody was talking about obama care. the race finished at 3%. what i am saying is you asked me about lessons for 2014. if republicans think they can get on this obama care kick and win in 2014 on that, i think they're mistaken. if you look at the polling throughout all this obama care d...

They went after new faces, between paul and rubio. these are certainly people have not been on the national scene for very long. i do think, though, if you kind of step back and you say, who were those swing voters that romney should have had but didn't get, i don't know that the rand paul profile fits that bill. and to a point we kind of referenced earlier, the only time that mitt romney tightened this race, if you remember in 2012, was after the first debate when he sounded a much more moderate tone, not severely conservative. that's when it became kind of a one or two point race. when peopl...

>> you see, romney will take florida and virginia and north carolina. basically what i've seen. >> i agree. >> i think romney gets 279 to 281 or 286 in the electoral. >> i'm sticking with you. i think it is a two point race too. three point race. >> we will win by a san leandro slide. >> not even close. 300 electoral votes for romney. >> pretty much everybody was predicting an obama victory. that's because all of the polls were predicting an obama victory and all of the betting markets were betting an obama victory. nate had a model with obama with a 91% chance of victory. on the eve, entre ga...

>> sean: you sound confident about ohio? >> it is a coin toss. i mean i do think this. i think there is something going on out there and we he saw it in the des moines register poll today. you're right, the intense sit on the republican side. there is something else there. the woman who runs the des moines register poll who knows that state intimately said wait a minute, obama is ahead but 5% of our sample said we have a choice and we are not telling you who it is. i doubt those people are for obama. >> sean: new hampshire tied. wisconsin tied. pennsylvania tied. wisconsin tied. michigan tied ...

Mostly it's been a 2 point race. barack obama or mitt romney could still win the election and nobody is going to win by anything approaching 8 points. ohio does matter. ohio is an incredibly close state. and our latest numbers we show president obama still leading by one point in ohio. and that is well above where he should be performing in a close national race. it is the fire wall. >> bill: okay, when you say well above what he should be performing, you have to take into account the auto deal in ohio. it's a very specific, the president's policies toward the u.s. auto companies benefited a l...