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Then the pollsters and those who crunch the data were not so wrong. is that a fair statement? >> yes, if you look at the national popular vote, it looks like hillary clinton's win of 1.7 percentage points was not as far off because polls indicated a 4 point win by her and just to go back further in time, look, back in january, i pointed out he was the odds on and i don't think it's time to throw out opinion polling data but an important and close race, is there some way to do a little bit better and to refine methods so in these close races, then more accurate data would be available. >> fast ...

Here it is now. the nbc news "the wall street journal" poll, hillary up 51% to 41%. the same poll, nbc "the wall street journal" poll in the past several elections, three weeks out, the exact same point four years ago had barack obama five points ahead of mitt romney. that was a very stable lead, look what happened on election day three weeks later, four point win for barack obama. it was five three weeks out, ended up four on election day. that's stability. how about 2008 when obama ran against john mccain. this looks similar. double digit lead for barack obama. fast forward to election day, ...

Obama. 2004, bush versus kerry, bush lead of two points. stability, stability, stability. three weeks later, look what happens on election day. two point win for george w. bush. then you go back to 2000 when george w. bush first got elected president. look at this. three weeks out, our poll had george w. bush six points ahead of al gore, a lot of polls, margin wasn't necessarily this high, a lot of polls had bush ahead. look what happened election day. al gore actually won popular vote, didn't win the electoral college. what happened? one theory what happened in that race at the end is a coupl...

Republican nomination first i think that's going to be hard. he is popular now. i think his rhetoric does excite a lot of people who are not usually involved in politics. it is becoming an increasingly difficult problem for the republican party. he is highlighting -- just the issue alone divides the party. it's a huge problem for the republican party. he is he creating a bigger divide. he has become a boone for hillary clinton. to talk about republican hostility towards immigrants. and i think he believes that he will create all these jobs and win the white house and latino vote and everything...

He needs to focus on get to get end of this race and winning big. i think that if he wins by a decent margin in new jersey, a democratic state, two term governor who did well, he'll be the frontrunner for the 2016 republican nomination. >> neil: i wonder how mainstream media would cast a republican win in a state like new jersey on the part of governor christie because he's a formidable national force. only they would look at 20 point win and call it disappointing. did the governor himself plant the seeds they would be everything? >> i don't know if he needs a 30 point win. expectation is a 25...