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Their alalgorithms. they don't want to get it wrong. they hated being wrong in 2016. they'll hate if they're wrong in 2022. the other big question is what is -- does the polling miss -- do the polling missing get back to a normal degree of territory and not so uniform in one direction knew donald trump is not on the ballot? the polls have been most wrong in 2016 and 2020. both times donald trump was on the ballot. the question is with trump not on the ballot whether pollsters will be closer to right this time or whether there's something fundamentally broken in polling? that's one of the thing...

Ma mandel 18%, mike gibb gallons 13 public school, matt dolan 11%, jane timken 6%. this undecided column, look at that, 25%. that actually leads the field at this point so we're not exactly sure what exactly will happen tomorrow. >> what does history tell us? >> this is, again, something i just want to note in terms of when we see this polling data, look, it's instructive as to who is probably ahead here, but this is primary polling errors in the final poll, the margin between the top two candidates which was five points, it was five points in that fox news poll. the average error since 2000 p...

High, he's softening his talk. makes sense. this shows you the stakes. president of the united states, joe biden, just landed in long beach, california. you know why? because the recall has everybody worried. joining me now is the wizard of odds, harry enten, to give us a preview of what may happen tomorrow and explain why do you care. i don't live in california. all right. wiz, so when we look at this, here's my concern. the polls. should we be giving stock to the polls in this context, and what do you take from them? >> i give stock to the polls. right now, we know a majority of voters say t...

If the governor gets recalled tomorrow, it's going to be a polling miss for the ages. gavin newsom is heavily favored. it doesn't mean he'll necessarily win, but it would be quite surprising to me as someone who studies the numbers. >> how is elder doing and why is he doing well? >> well, what is doing well, right? he leads in that second round. but that doesn't necessarily mean that most of the people who say they're going to vote in the second round want him. he's only at 31% of the vote. someone else blank don't note at 69% of the vote. compare that to the last recall in 2003 that schwarzen...

You know why? because the recall has everybody worried. joining me now is the wizard of odds, harry enten, to give us a preview of what may happen tomorrow and explain why do you care. i don't live in california. all right. wiz, so when we look at this, here's my concern. the polls. should we be giving stock to the polls in this context, and what do you take from them? >> i give stock to the polls. right now, we know a majority of voters say they're going to vote against the recall. 56% to 41%, and take a look here. if you look back at all of the gubernatorial elections since 1998, with a poll...