The Godley–Tobin memorial lecture*
The KermackâMcKendrick SIR model is an extreme special case of an epidemic model (1927), with constant contagion and recovery parameters. There are many variations of this model, each with its own hump-shaped, or sometimes wave-like or even chaotic, outcomes. A recent summary of 51 forecasting models for COVID-19 by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention explicitly described 23 of them as based on a variant of the original SIR model. When we apply such models to narratives, the recovery rate is just the forgetting rate, or loss-of-interest rate, which stops people from spreadi...
Source: elgaronline.com