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There’s no crystal ball for modeling the pandemic
Mathematical modelers explain challenges, limitations of their work to predict COVID-19 outcomes
February 22, 2021
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By Sabrina Richards
/ Fred Hutch News Service
While models can point to key variables that could slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, modelers caution against expecting them to predict the exact numbers of cases of COVID-19.
Getty Images Illustration
Dr. Laura Matrajt didn’t expect to make much noise on Twitter. She just wanted to clarify a term she’d seen sowing confusion on social media.
It was mid-March 2020, and the term was “flattening the curve.”
“I was seeing people in my social media discussing, ‘Is it useful? Is it not useful?’” she said. “Some were saying, ‘People are exaggerating, [SARS-CoV-2] is just like the flu.’” ....

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