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Obama into the white house last time. >> d plus 7. in 2008 obama won by seven points over mccain, and they're kind of counting on a turnout -- not in every state, but of a d plus 7. if it's plus 7 or plus, obama's going to win. if it's d plus 3 or a republican edge -- because they think they have an edge in independents -- then romney's going to win. it's so interesting, though, i've been reading these polls, and real clear politics which does a really good job, it's a web site, realclearpolitics.com, and they average all the recent polls, you look at ohio, and either obama wins, or it's a tie...

Range of jobs proposals from his administration. >> first, my plan builds on our manufacturing growth by ending tax breaks for companies that are shipping jobs overseas. i want to reward small businesses and manufacturers who are creating jobs right here in the united states of america. [cheers and applause] second, my plan will cut our oil imports in half by 2020 so we control more of our own energy here in america. megyn: and here's a look at why the president stayed in florida after last night's debate in boca raton. the latest polling average from realclearpolitics.com that averages all th...

Should certainly survey cell phones and lots of other reasons like who is going to vote and how you define likely voter screen. there are loads of reason why there are such discrepancies in the polls. that's why i always tell everybody do not trust any particular poll. they can all be wrong at various times. go to the polling averages at pollster.com, realclearpolitics.com. they're not politics but the best we've got. >> if you don't know exactly what's going on, i'm ready to throw up my papers at the desk and say that's it. given the president's lead in those states, larry, nbc's first read t...

The romney campaign has spent exactly zero dollars on ads targeting the neigh's fastest growing voting group. joining me now are erin mcpike, a national political reporter for realclearpolitics.com and alicia menendez of nbclatino.com. alicia, the romney plan on immigration is something he is apparently still deciding about. how quickly does he have to decide? >> i think he's already decided. this is actually one of those issues on which he's been pretty clear. he's been pretty clear since 2008. he believes that immigrants should self-deport. he opposes the dream act. he thinks that arizona's ...

Exactly zero dollars on ads targeting the neigh's fastest growing voting group. joining me now are erin mcpike, a national political reporter for realclearpolitics.com and alicia menendez of nbclatino.com. alicia, the romney plan on immigration is something he is apparently still deciding about. how quickly does he have to decide? >> i think he's already decided. this is actually one of those issues on which he's been pretty clear. he's been pretty clear since 2008. he believes that immigrants should self-deport. he opposes the dream act. he thinks that arizona's sb-1070 should be a model for ...