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State and can have anywhere from 2 to 3 to 4 point swing in the election. and from what it might otherwise be. otherwise the state is about six points. so 3 or 4 point swing towards republicans. away from the democrats would put it in the republic column. >> bill: does it really matter, 10 electoral votes as opposed to florida's 29 and ohio, too. ohio is another one that romney has to carry. go ahead. >> yeah. well, look, the important thing is not just the home state. and it's not the electoral impact of the vice presidential running mate. that's generally nationwide about half a point and ge...

The -- we base this on the state level polls there are infrequent, state level polls at this point. they will start increasing in the battleground states. we will get a lot more fresher data and more frequent data and that's going to mean the map for a while is still going to allow the national trend. i agree with you. i think north carolina is gone. just like indiana is gone. obama no chance to win them. i think ohio and florida are leaning today toward rom anymore. places like iowa and colorado are in danger of floating into the republic column and states like nevada and pennsylvania are mov...

The -- we base this on the state level polls there are infrequent, state level polls at this point. they will start increasing in the battleground states. we will get a lot more fresher data and more frequent data and that's going to mean the map for a while is still going to allow the national trend. i agree with you. i think north carolina is gone. just like indiana is gone. obama no chance to win them. i think ohio and florida are leaning today toward rom anymore. places like iowa and colorado are in danger of floating into the republic column and states like nevada and pennsylvania are mov...

The -- we base this on the state level polls there are infrequent, state level polls at this point. they will start increasing in the battleground states. we will get a lot more fresher data and more frequent data and that's going to mean the map for a while is still going to allow the national trend. i agree with you. i think north carolina is gone. just like indiana is gone. obama no chance to win them. i think ohio and florida are leaning today toward rom anymore. places like iowa and colorado are in danger of floating into the republic column and states like nevada and pennsylvania are mov...