Page 46 - Sam Wang News Today : Breaking News, Live Updates & Top Stories | Vimarsana

>> you did laugh. >> i did laugh. >> 538 thought he had a zero r percent chance. >> uncertainty is smart. i have no problem with being less incertain and most people should be humble and recognize polls aren't perfect. we have a polls plus and a polls only model and they're showing the xablth same thing. >> i think that people have often focused on the differences between the polls. those differences are fairly modest compared to indifferences between either of our models and what sam shows. you know, the notion that a three or four-point lead in key states and in the national popular vote giv...

38-yard field goals. it happens. we have all seen it. there was a game on sunday night involving my seattle seahawks two weeks ago in which there were two kicks missed from even closer in overtime. you know, i don't want to bring up a hard moment for a bills fan, but the bills lost the super bowl in a game winning kick. >> but the kickererize more accurate. >> let me ask you what very respected polling expert at princeton university says. he says you guys on 538 are overcounting polls. "huffington post" says you are actually deliberately unskewing data in a way that, again, places your thumb o...

Kick. >> but the kickererize more accurate. >> let me ask you what very respected polling expert at princeton university says. he says you guys on 538 are overcounting polls. "huffington post" says you are actually deliberately unskewing data in a way that, again, pl e places your thumb on the finger for trump. not doing it for trump, but the effect is to overrepresent trump's advantages. sam says that most important thing you should look at, first of all, he thinks this model makes no sense. the polls should reflect all the fundamentals. however people are feeling about the economy, however t...

Up something like 53 seats plus or minus two. they picked up 63 seats. so it was well outside of his margin of error. the fact is we work very hard on these models. i'll tell you this much. if you go back to early in 2015 and told me donald trump would be the republican nominee for president. i would laugh at you. >> you did laugh. >> i did laugh. >> 538 thought he had a zero percent chance. >> uncertainty is smart. i have no problem with being less urn certain and -- uncertain and most people should be humble and recognize polls aren't perfect. we have a polls plus and a polls only model and ...

Than later on tuesday, because some of the crucial states are in the eastern time zone. if she wins north carolina, it's over. if she wins florida, it's over, right? i'm going to ask you now, i am going to go with sam wang, 312. you must have an electoral vote count that you have figured out. >> i'll go with 318. >> okay. >> 322. >> higher. all right. so you think that despite the fact that your models are less could be if i dent of a hillary victory -- >> i don't think the main difference between the models is how far clinton is ahead. the difference is how far the results could differ from o...