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Simulating 800,000 years of California earthquake history to pinpoint risks


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IMAGE: A randomly selected 3,000-year segment of the physics-based simulated catalog of earthquakes in California, created on Frontera.
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Credit: Kevin Milner, University of Southern California
Massive earthquakes are, fortunately, rare events. But that scarcity of information blinds us in some ways to their risks, especially when it comes to determining the risk for a specific location or structure.
We haven t observed most of the possible events that could cause large damage, explained Kevin Milner, a computer scientist and seismology researcher at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California. Using Southern California as an example, we haven t had a truly big earthquake since 1857 that was the last time the southern San Andreas broke into a massive magnitude 7.9 earthquake. A San Andreas earthquake could impact a much larger area than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and other large ....

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