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The minutes of the late-March meeting of the RBA Board (the last in the Martin Place building) recorded that the data had turned out broadly as expected, and that this supported keeping the cash rate on hold. Unlike the February minutes, there was no mention of multiple policy options. While the Board endorsed the language of not ruling anything in or out, it seems that policy actions other than keeping rates unchanged were not on the table at this meeting. The current level of the cash rate is assessed as being just right, at least for the time being.
Absent a new inflationary shock, central banks’ next moves are likely to be down. We expect the first cut in Australia to occur after the late-September meeting. Here we explain our reasoning behind this timing.
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