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State contests in iowa and new hampshire and in nevada, and south carolina, to focus on the march 3rd super tuesday states where nearly a quarter of the primary delegates are up for grabs. let's get a check of your weather now with nbc meteorologist bill karins. >> did you notice it was a little bit warmer. >> like a tad. >> i cheated. i'm looking at your weather wall. >> like 30. >> like right here. >> 15 degrees? >> plus seven degrees. >> i'm cheating. i didn't get it right. >> that's the point. >> that is it. good morning. the ohio valley, things have warmed up considerably. it's okay. new ...

Look, i wouldn't extrapolate out what's going to happen in new hampshire but the trend lines tell you something, that the fact that bernie sanders has been resilient. and the fact that elizabeth warren has continued this steady rise. and the fact that joe biden is slipping. that's probably the most significant trend. other than warren's climb is biden's steady fall. it's not that he's out of the game for any stretch of the imagination, but for a guy who came into the race as a clear front-runner and who would have a national constituency in a moderately state where independent voters can vote ...

Maybe biden is still ahead in warren. sanders is in third and nobody else is popping. there is no national primary. we have a series of individual state contests and all the action begins in iowa with those caucuses. and whatever happens in those caucuses, whoever wins, whoever loses has such a big effect on what happens from there. so with that in mind, the latest polling out of iowa, just a couple days old, check this out. it looks a little different than what you see nationally. you have biden, warren, and sanders, a virtual three-way tie for first place in the leadoff state. by the way, th...

>> thank you. >> be good. >> back to you. >> chris hayes, thank you. over to steve kornacki at the big board. can you help us out with where this race stands right now perhaps? >> i think there is two ways of looking at it. one is i do this all the time. we get a new national poll out. warren, maybe she is three points ahead of biden, maybe biden is still ahead of warren and sanders is in third and nobody else is popping. and that is the story we've been telling nationally in this race. but there is no national primary. we have a series of individual state contests in all the action begins in ...

Early state contests, not just in south carolina where they made up 61% of the electorate in the primary, but also in all of those southeastern states that will come very quickly up on the calendar after those early contests. and if she can rack up a series of wins by consolidating the african-american vote which is a tall task, then she really could be in a strong position early in the presidential season. >> first she has to announce and then raise money. she is from california which is where a lot of money is for a democratic candidate. we were talking about joe biden. i spoke with former v...