Page 22 - State Polling News Today : Breaking News, Live Updates & Top Stories | Vimarsana

Were predicted by the polls. part of it is that people kind of forgot that the 2012 election was so close that actually obama only got 52% of the vote. we think about president obama, mitt romney as a failure, he lost the election, but it was really close. this election again was forecast to be really close. people weren't used to that. i think a lot of people who had been following polls, who didn't have a lot of experience in the area, had sort of naive view because the last few elections the polls happen to have been very close at the national election. but let me give you a quote. my colle...

Ahead in either state, in each of those states, and then take that and compound that across all 56 races. there are 56 races that determine the electoral college and that's over 72 quadrillion possibilities and so i have a little script that i've written on my computer that does that. it figures out what the median is or the midpoint of all those possibilities and the median currently is at 312 electoral votes so the general idea is that is our sharpest snapshot of where the race appears to be based on today's state polling. >> that is the first time i've heard 72 quadrillion used in a sentenc...

What they found which is consistent with what others say about their own polling is that when things are tough for their candidate, their base is not excited about picking up the phone. that accounts for some of the fluctuations. but it makes sense when you look at how little impact the comey letter is really having on the race when you ask people about it directly, doesn't seem to make a difference. so you look at the states, so some of the averages and the forecast like the princeton forecast which is more focused on state polling than on national polling is consistently more optimistic for ...

If you look at the overall averages, they are more stable. there's a great piece by doug rivers at real clear politics that goes into this in lots of nerdy, geeky detail that people should go read which is that what they found which is consistent with what others say about their own polling is that when things are tough for their candidate, their base is not excited about picking up the phone. that accounts for some of the fluctuations. but it makes sense when you look at how little impact the comey letter is really having on the race when you ask people about it directly, doesn't seem to make...

Shows a one point trump lead a statistical tie. in the meantime a poll of polls has hillary clinton up four. and that's far from the only read on what appears to be a tightening race and what that means for the path to 270. john king is back with a quick run down by the numbers. still not a lot of new state polling this week john but there are a couple of signs about the impact of the fbi announcement. >> that washington post national poll does tell you you have a tightening race. it is the first time he's been ahead in months. so that is one piece of evidence. other places. virginia is a stat...