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Some models are useful: Flaschy herd protection and Funky forecasting

These inaugural lectures will provide a brief snapshot of two career journeys in the field of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. They will focus on the use (and misuse) of mathematical models for outbreak response and vaccine policy advice.

Berlin , Germany , Sebastian-funk , Stefan-flasche , Strathclyde-university , Robert-koch-institute , Health-protection-agency , Mathematical-biology-at-university-of-london , Infectious-disease-dynamics , Mathematical-biology , Vaccine-epidemiology ,

COVID-19 Collection

COVID-19 Collection
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Ghana , India , Egypt , Armenia , Ministry-of-health , Al-qahirah , El-salvador , Ashraf-sheble , Joseph-ojonugwa-shaibu , Amy-vassallo , Sheikh-jarju , Theresa-lamagni

Dr Annuar: Herd immunity concept must not be 'offhandedly' misjudged | Malaysia

Dr Annuar: Herd immunity concept must not be 'offhandedly' misjudged | Malaysia
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Malaysia , United-states , Israel , Sibu , Sarawak , Nangka , Sabah , Washington , Borneo , Malaysia-general- , Georgetown-university , District-of-columbia

Modelling suggests mass vaccination campaigns during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics should not be cancelled if adequate risk mitigation

Modelling suggests mass vaccination campaigns during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics should not be cancelled if adequate risk mitigation
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Brittany-hagedorn , Stefan-flasche , Kaja-abbas , Simon-procter , Kathleenm-oreilly , Mark-jit , Ulla-griffiths , Simonr-procter , London-school-of-hygiene-tropical-medicine , Group-mark-jit , Melinda-gates-foundation , London-school

Are schools safe during Covid-19? Academics take sides in a controversial grudge match

Are schools safe during Covid-19? Academics take sides in an epic grudge match
One team of experts warn sending kids back to school will lead to a spike in cases, while their opponents say it's safe. But who is right?
By
Jennifer Rigby,
Global Health Security Correspondent
;
Anne Gulland,
Global Health Security Deputy Editor
and
Paul Nuki,
Global Health Security Editor,
London
8 March 2021 • 6:16pm
Schools in England fully reopened on Monday 8 March - but there is a bitter battle over how important children are in coronavirus transmission
Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Monday, March 8 marks the kick-off of a grudge match between two teams of leading Covid-19 scientists.

Bristol , City-of , United-kingdom , London , Scotland , Francois-balloux , John-edmunds , Alasdair-munro , Stefan-flasche , Muge-cevik , Trish-greehalgh , Eric-feigl

Why aren't kids getting vaccinated?

Even a year into the pandemic, itâs not yet entirely clear why this is the case. Research points to a different immune response to viral exposure in children, which may signify that their immune systems are able to neutralize the virus much faster and therefore stop it from replicating. Children may also benefit from cross-protection by antibodies to other circulating coronaviruses that they are more regularly exposed to.
And thereâs also the possibility that children have fewer ACE2 receptors in the cells that line nasal passages, which are the doorways the SARS-CoV-2 viruses uses to gain entry to host cells and infect them. That would make it less likely for the virus to get a foot in the door. There is a more serious complication of SARS-CoV-2 exposure that can occur in children, called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C. However it is rare, with fewer than 1,700 cases and just 26 deaths reported across the US.

United-kingdom , Stefan-flasche , Mobeen-rathore , Beth-thielen , London-school-of-hygiene , Johns-hopkins-school-of-medicine , University-of-minnesota , University-of-florida-college-medicine , Division-of-infectious-diseases , Anna-sick-samuels , Infectious-diseases , Johns-hopkins-school

mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia

mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia
Abstract
Mass antigen testing in Slovakia conducted in October and November 2020 is a source of important data. We perform its statistical analysis and study epidemic geographical patterns. We observe exponentially distributed test positivity and exponential trends in its geographical distribution, and its approximately 10 km spatial characteristic correlation length.
A small correlation between positivity in two consecutive testing rounds appeared on the municipalities level but it significantly increased on the counties level.
Recent 7-day PCR tests incidence per capita served as a good proxy for antigen test positivity. Positivity of non-residents was higher than of residents when mass testing was offered only in municipalities with the highest positivity in previous rounds. Reduction in positivity in repeated testing increased with the positivity in the earlier round. Our results contribute to better understanding of pandemic data, and aid an assessment of mass testing efficiency, and planning of mitigation measures.

Slovak-republic , United-kingdom , Slovak , Katharine-sherratt , Sebastian-funk , Kevin-van-zandvoort , Stefan-flasche , Sam-abbott , Royal-society-grant , Royal-society , Global-challenges-research-fund , Melinda-gates-foundation

'Is my child less important?': Anger over government's decision to only close primary schools in London and South East - even though Covid-19 cases spike in some of our boroughs

'Is my child less important?': Anger over government's decision to only close primary schools in London and South East - even though Covid-19 cases spike in some of our boroughs
Rates are increasing rapidly in parts of Greater Manchester - should our primary schools be closed as well?
Updated
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United-kingdom , Greater-manchester , United-kingdom-general , Manchester , London , City-of , Stockport , Rita-cox , Stuart-barrington , Jo-worgan , W-john-edmunds , Gavin-williamson

What do we know about the spread of Covid-19 among children?

What do we know about the spread of Covid-19 among children?
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United-kingdom , Northern-ireland , Craigavon , London , City-of , Essex , Scotland , Lovethephoto-alamy , Stefan-flasche , Susan-michie , Stephen-reicher , University-college-london

Mass testing with a short period of contact restrictions dramatically reduced SARS-CoV-2 infections

Date Time
Mass testing with a short period of contact restrictions dramatically reduced SARS-CoV-2 infections
In October 2020, Slovakia tested its whole population for SARS-CoV-2 infections, conducting more than five million rapid antigen tests. A pilot trial took place between 23 and 25 October in the country’s four most affected counties, followed by a round of national mass testing on 31 October and 1 November. High prevalence counties were again targeted with a subsequent round on 7 and 8 November.
The analysis, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, was conducted in collaboration with the Slovak Ministry of Health. Using data on the proportions of those attending the mass testing that tested positive, the team estimated the combined impact of this mass testing with contact restrictions on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence.

Slovak-republic , United-kingdom , Slovak , Sebastian-funk , Stefan-flasche , Martin-pavelka , Slovak-ministry-of-health , Imperial-college , Slovak-ministry , Moh-slovakia , Mathematical-modelling , Infectious-diseases