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Back to the '70s. it's going to be, you know, people are going to be shooting drugs on your stoop. and it didn't work. and steve, i think that the politics of crime have really been so central to american politics so long and they're really shifting in a fundamental way. >> sure. that's what a declining crime rate will do. that's what low murder rates will do. if you talk about the streak in the city. 1989, the last time a democrat won a mayoral race. that was what empowered the rise of giuliani. you had the crown heist. that gave way to bloomberg. every time the crime rate fell it's let's not...

Re-election victory earlier todd. joining me now, steve carnaky, and john nichols. and karen finney and former communications director for the dnc. that part of the christie speech embodied the whole speech, which is it true you're all looking at me? am i right, all of america? i can feel your eyes on me and if you think it's true, it is true. i am all that and more. that was basically the chris christie speech. >> except i think you're being a little modest. this is chris christie. it's who he is. he didn't change his style. i think the interesting thing is, he gave one of the longer victory ...

Race. it's probably going to be the last one you get in 30 years. it is like mayor for life up there. the last one before this was 20 years ago. the big national take is virginia was, still is the premiere swing state in the country. because there is a warning shot here for the overreach of tea party republicanism. certainly that's what put terry mcauliffe over the to be. i'm looking at the map tonight from virginia and i'm looking at the same map i saw election night in 2012. there's no state in the country that tracks closer to the national average in 2012 than virginia. it's the same thing....

Going to win. if it gets higher up in fairfax county, say like 40%, it's likely we won't win. well, tonight in blue fairfax county, virginia, shortly before 9:00, he posted, we are at 44.3% turnout. we will probably hit plus 45%. virginia republicans were right. the lower the turnout in places like fairfax county, the better for their candidate. as it happens, though, that did not work out for them tonight. joining us is steve carnaky. we saw an electorate in virginia that looked much more like 20 12 than in 2009. >> what we saw play out tonight in virginia was a repeat of election night in vi...

It just sounds more impressive. it's a psychological thing. but the flip side, if you look in virginia, the bar was set about a week ago for this reason. we were all talking a week ago, the tea party is going to have to get the message now, and they still lose. and they are now able to stay, it was close. so the tea party is -- >> they're going to call it a win. our loss was kind of a win. steve, great to have you here. we'll be right back.