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Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. The lack of consensus among forecasters is a stark contrast to a year ago, when most predicted a U.S. recession and rapid rate cuts that failed to materialise. The divisions this year have produced a scattergram of projections for the U.S. interest rate path and how global assets that are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions will perform.

Forecasts for the next year reflect a deep division

LONDON: Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the US economy will enter a long-heralded recession...

Fears that high and rising Treasury yields will pummel Wall Street are understandable, but ultimately misplaced - history shows that the link between yields and stocks ranges from patchy at best, to... -November 02, 2023 at 09:48 am EDT - MarketScreener

Stocks have fallen as much as 10% since July as bond yields have shot up sharply, but beyond that immediate correction, the outlook is more encouraging