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Will, i don't think the politics in the midterm are unknown. i think they're making a stupid political bet. >> i don't disagree with you, nicolle. it informs my judgment, what led me to break with the republican party even before the events of january 6th. i agree with you on that. on the republican side of the aisle they are embarked on a full fledged war, this notion of litmus testing on college campuses, immigration and violence. it comes down to an agenda based on race. and so their turnout model has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not democrats want to get to the bottom of the ev...

This is one to two months before the iowa caucuses. i think this is the key point. the difference between where the person ended up winning, the polling -- >> the polls were off almost ten snounts. >> -- ten points? >> yes. look at this, 2004 and and the democrats, john kerrey was only at 18% and he ended up getting 38% in the iowa stay caucuses. in iowa caucus, the turnout model is particularly difficult. this may be one of those years. >> this should have been your first point but never mind. let's go to approvals. >> i just want to point out one thing in the state of iowa. >> harry does not...

On the scales of this democratic transformational president in primary, putting biden in the e ronald reagan was. awkward spot of running as a and a lot of this comes out of ballot. restoration of the obama years trump-se and fielding criticism of the frustration, trump-centric voters. president obama had terrible obama's record while obama stays midterms in 2010 and 2014, but silent himself. barack obama as somewhat of a he came back and won the next we've got a phenomenal group ch in der to get out two years. here on set with me to talk of all of his lingering i think you need to take a look...

Personally as he is? that would give him -- that's essentially what he did in 2016, and it was just enough. can he replicate that again? that's the question here. >> the president would throw all of that analysis out because he believes, kelly o'donnell, that these polls don't mean anything, that they're fake, that they're not believable. here's what he said in his abc interview. >> i don't believe those polls. there's no way he beats me in texas. >> even your own polls show you're behind right now? >> no, my polls show i'm winning everywhere. >> we've all seen reports 15 out of 17 states you ...

>> why? >> oh, john, cnn had a poll with andrew gillum 12 points ahead. >> he lost by less than a point. that's well within the margin of error. i think there were errors within the polls where it was in the margins. i think we do have a problem picking up red state voters. but we were told there are 229. they're not perfect. but i don't think they're the villain. >> i think the turnout model is getting impossible to predict. and when we saw a replay a 2016. >> yeah. i think, john, you put it very well. we do have a problem, we saw it in florida, detecting some of this republican support in th...