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Her lead there, correct? >> she is, but she's also pouring a lot of money in tv ads back into wisconsin, back into michigan. more money into pennsylvania. why does that blue firewall work? let's go to the map assuming donald trump holds ohio, he's ahead in utah and arizona. the clinton camp thinks she can get arizona, and for the sake of the argument, trump has the momentum. why does the blue wall matter? let's say donald trump gets florida, that's 249, if he gets north carolina, that's 264, knocking on the door, if he wins any of these blues at 264, the only one that wouldn't get him to the f...

More than half, 52% say obama has accomplished not much, little or nothing as president. over 9% believe the economic recovery has been strong and by a 2-1 margin, they say they are worse off than believe they are better off financially. a couple notes on the convention. by the way, now that we've gone from four to three, political conventions probably starting in 2016 will never be four days again, number one. the tv ad rate, this would be the earlier than president bush in his re-election or bill clinton although you can argue bill clinton did do some testing of tv ads back in '95, when they...

Donald trump's leading in nevada. if he can keep that, and leading in arizona, donald trump leading in ohio -- if he can keep that, that would get him up to 215. this is hypothetical, but logical to think if donald trump is building support in the west maybe he's building it up enough to get past that never-trump conservative evan mcmullin in utah. we have it as a toss up but for the sake of this conversation, let's give him utah. it gets him to 220, which is why we're going to go to the final days of the campaign talking about florida and north carolina. game over if donald trump can turn tho...