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china watcher gorden chang warning we must prepare for war because of it. he means what he says. it's all coming up. welcome, everybody. glad to have you. i'm neil cavuto. let's get to it with jacqui at the white house. jacqui? >> "the washington post" has been reporting that the chinese spy balloon's path over the u.s. may have been driven by the wind and that analysts are examining the possibility that the chinese did not intend to penetrate the american heartland with their surveillance equipment. i'm told that that is not the full story. we're learning a lot more right now. offic...

Deal. they're a risk. so they town graded the u.s. they could do that again. that means higher interest rates on everything. that's everything we you'll for our credit instruments. so as you tip toe up to the x date, you're running risks in advance of even hitting that wall. since we don't know what the x date is, cbo has it past june, treasury has it in june. that lends another piece of uncertainty to the entire situation. >> neil: you think with a wink and a not and think it's probably october or september and they get it to close to the wire? >> people do believe that the treasury has an in...

It will average more than two trillion each year over the next decade. treasury estimates the debt ceiling hits in june. senate majority leader chuck schumer views treasury's date as the real date. neil? >> neil: thanks for that, chad. chad pergram. so what do we do? what constitutes our running against a wall and defaulting? douglas joins us, the former cbo director himself. doug, what would do it? what would define a default? >> a failure to make timely payments on interest or principal on u.s. treasuries. that's something that we've never done at a large scale. the concern here is that if t...