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It, the cbs/"new york times" poll, this does blow my mind. she was up bine nine. she's up by three. that can't just be republicans are coming home. that's a big shift. >> it is, and it isn't. i think you have to realize the really big leads, the nine and 12-point leads you have seen, probably weren't as big as they looked before. so you're seeing swings of these polls that make me think there's a lot of noise inside the poll. i look at the likely voter models of each of these polls. how are they sampling. frinls, the mew hampshire poll they did a sample that was 32% republican, 28% democratic....

Poll is created equally. you have different methodologies, different likely voter models. this is where the polling stands. yesterday we ended up releasing the online survey monkey nbc tracking poll. it shows a six-point lead for hillary clinton over donald trump. you have a reuters poll and an online poll with hillary clinton ahead of donald trump by six points. the abc/washington post poll you were just mentioning has donald trump up by one. that's been an interesting movement. andrea, we have seen a full 13-point swing over the past week or so. hillary clinton was up by 12 points just a wee...

Congressional district in miami. donald trump is losing that district to hillary clinton. marco rubio is winning the district and carlos is winning the district. the voters are saying we are going to split tickets because while we may be voting for hillary for whatever our reason is, we don't like hillary very much. her unfavorables are too high and we want a congress that will do something to stop her. you are seeing that in district after district across the country. >> what happened in new hampshire and kelly ayotte who said during a debate with her democratic opponent she thought donald tr...

Increase in today's poll. how do you read it? >> particularly since just a week ago, the abc washington post poll had a four-point lead. it grew by eight points. i think one thing i was looking at about the polling in this poll and other polls, my own poll had a 12-point lead last week, is that they're moving in that -- seemed to be moving in that direction. but there is still a very wide gap. right now, all the polls that are going into the averages range from trump 2-point lead to a lead we saw today, so it is a 14-point gap. when i looked back four years ago, eight years ago, eight years ag...

We have a new indication of just how dire things have become for trump. in our new poll out right now, hillary clinton leads donald trump in a four-way race by ten points among registered voters. if you limit it to likely voters, check this out, clinton's lead grows to 48% 37% before likely voter models would actually help trump, not in this case. but there's a silver lining for republicans in this poll. it may be in congress where the democratic lead has snapped back to two points. a week ago, it had opened up to seven. these numbers come after a head shaking week when trump was under constan...