Notice, and the warnings of mass layoffs, as high as they've been since 2008, challenger layoffs are good indicator of future claims. initial claims for unemployment insurance north of the 250 which we think of as close to recession. looks to me like the labor market is starting to hit them all and if you look at the warren act it is stunning how high they are. 150%. paul: why is the stock market so it bully and -- he bully and --ebullient? if a recession is, you wouldn't expect that. >> 25 months in a row despite the strong labor signs in the employment data, real wages have declined, the lon...