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"I assess equity markets with the C-F-E framework, where C stands for corporate earnings, F for flows, and E for event risks. Corporate earnings have grown well over the last two years, with Nifty 50 earnings per share rising 30% from 650 to 850. So today with Nifty 50 at around 20000 levels, we are trading at 23.5 times trailing earnings."
"India is currently in a favourable position compared to both developed and emerging nations. However, there is a possibility of FPIs selling their investments in India if there is a global risk-off situation. Despite Indias strong macroeconomic fundamentals, external factors like concerns in the US banking sector, elevated crude oil prices, high inflation, and a sustained “higher for longer” policy rate can have an impact."
“For me, the red flags are global. What is concerning me is the way commodities have been going up, especially crude. And energy has a very big inflationary impact. You are seeing that in US bond yields and the US dollar. The risk to Indian markets is more global and that will get expressed by a global kind of correction or aggressive FII selling.”
"In the short term, investors should stay put and focus more on diversifying their allocations to reduce overall downside risks. One should not get carried away with the sharp surge seen in the mid, small, and micro-cap space. We are heading into a general election year and volatility is bound to persist. One should not take leveraging positions and continuing with SIP investments at this point is the ideal way forward."
"We believe that the increased retail participation in the equity market is a structural trend that will last at least the next ten years. At the same time, we believe that while a greater number of retail investors will gain direct exposure to the equity market through cash and derivative settlements, an even greater number will gain indirect exposure to the equity market, particularly through equity-oriented mutual fund schemes."