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Econintersect's Economic Index forecast sees a modest slowing of the economic rate of growth as consumers do not yet seem to be prepared to spend. The media/government message machine is spinning the variants as a potential bomb reinforcing the message to consumers to save for the oncoming rainy day - even though the current rapidly expanding COVID vaccination program should be cause for a rosier message. Please share this article - Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media icons. Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast The effectiveness of stimulus programs is signif...

January 2021 Real Income Grew Due To Stimulus The data continues to be affected by the pandemic. Expenditures improved month-over-month (but is in contraction year-over-year) whilst income improved month-over-month mostly due to the stimulus payments. Analyst Opinion of Personal Income and Expenditures The note from the BEA says it all: The increase in personal income in January was more than accounted for by an increase in government social benefits to persons as payments were made to individuals from federal COVID-19 pandemic response programs. The increase in "other" benefits primarily ref...

Written by Steven HansenAccording to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4 % year-over-year (unchanged from the reported 1.4 % last month). The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate improved from 1.6 % to 1.4 %.

Econintersect's Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a marginally stronger economy in February. The coronavirus daily totals are declining - but the leaders at the CDC are worried that the South African / Brazilian variant may explode in February which would heavily impact the economy. Please share this article - Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media icons. Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast In the case of our forecas...

December 2020 Real Income Grew and Real Expenditures Declined The data continues to be affected by the pandemic. Expenditures declined month-over-month (and is in contraction year-over-year) whilst income improved month-over-month (and is in expansion year-over-year). Analyst Opinion of Personal Income and Expenditures The note from the BEA says it all: The December estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Many provisions of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act continued to wind down before the Coronavirus Respo...