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CPI Revision Concerns Come To The Fore

On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes remained subdued as markets paused at elevated levels, with the S&P 500 hovering just shy of the symbolic 5,000-point milestone. ....

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MIL-OSI Russian Economy News: Opening Remarks by First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath at the Press Conference on the Conclusion of the 2024 Japan Article IV Consultation Mission

MIL-OSI Russian Economy News: Opening Remarks by First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath at the Press Conference on the Conclusion of the 2024 Japan Article IV Consultation Mission
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Foreign Central Banks Take Center Stage

It was a busy week for foreign central banks, with several offering their first monetary policy assessment of 2024. The Bank of Japan held monetary policy unchanged, but its announcement and updated economic forecasts kept it on track for an April rate hike, in our view. The Bank of Canada's announcement was modestly dovish in tone, suggesting some risk that an initial rate cut could come earlier than our base case for monetary easing in June. The European Central Bank had offered hawkish guidance ahead of this week's meeting, but its announcement was arguably more neutral in tone. Given downbeat economic trends and the ECB's data dependence, our base case remains for an initial rate cut in April, although we acknowledge the risks are tilted toward a later move in June. Finally, the People's Bank of China lowered its Reserve Requirement Ratio to provide long-term liquidity to the market. While that could offer some support to the economy, we still expect China' ....

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