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We May Have Seen Peak Economic Growth and Peak Inflation, But Both Will Remain Strong

We May Have Seen Peak Economic Growth and Peak Inflation, But Both Will Remain Strong
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6 Things That Will Drive Market Volatility In 2021

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By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland
The year 2021 is likely to go through several stages, with the pandemic spreading rapidly at the start, then widespread distribution of vaccines, followed by a full opening of economies around the world. Markets, however, are forward-looking, such that prices in various sectors will be anticipating what a post-pandemic world will look like. Here is our perspective on the volatility drivers for a variety of asset classes to get the thought processes churning.
I. US Rates: Inflation on the horizon?
The fusion of fiscal and monetary policy with massive federal government budget deficits and large-scale purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve sets up a potential scenario for rising inflation. The inflation scenario puts the back-end of the Treasury yield curve in play, regardless of how long the Fed anchors the short end with zero rates. And there will be an increased focus on Treasury In ....

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