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January 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy


By Nicholas Porter
With COVID-19 still spreading throughout the United States, the Astor Economic Index continued its weakening trend in the month of December, ending the quarter down from its peak several months ago but still well into solid growth territory.
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This month’s non-farm payroll came in about as expected with a loss of 140,000 jobs month over month. Although aggregate gains since the depths of the pandemic have been solid, in percentage terms non-farm payrolls have remained about 6% lower year over year for the past few months. It is difficult to decompose the persistent level of unemployment into pandemic related lockdowns and more permanent scarring, but the hope is that we will return swiftly to structural unemployment levels following the purported end of the pandemic later this year. Jobless claims comported with payroll numbers, rising to 965,000, well below 2020 highs but again suggesting an economy continuing t ....

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