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Sporadic lockdowns to cost India $1.25 billion per week: Barclays


The sporadic lockdowns / mobility curbs and night curfews put in place across key economic hubs in India in the past few days are likely to cost the nation $1.25 billion per week, says the latest report dated April 12 from Barclays. This increase, Barclays said, reflects modest tightening of activity curbs, and the widening geographical spread of the second Covid wave.
“Taking into account rolling COVID curbs, if the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp) of annual nominal gross domestic product (GDP). However, the impact on the Q1-FY22 nominal GDP is likely to be higher, shaving around 1.4 pp from Q1-FY22 nominal GDP,” wrote Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays in the report coauthored with Shreya Sodhani. ....

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india gdp growth: Second wave impact: Nomura revises India's FY22 growth to 12.6% from 13.5%


Synopsis
In a previous report at the beginning of the month, Nomura had warned that the economy’s growth could fall to 12.2% if the second wave of Covid-19 worsened.
Agencies
The firm projected growth in the April-June quarter at 32.5%, down from 34.5% earlier, on the base of the massive 24.4% contraction seen during the first quarter of the last fiscal.
Global brokerage Nomura lowered its growth expectations for India to 12.6% in the new fiscal year from 13.5% earlier.
The revision reflected the pandemic drag on the economy and marginally lower retail inflation, the firm said in a report on Friday.
In a previous report at the beginning of the month, Nomura had warned that the economy’s growth could fall to 12.2% if the second wave of Covid-19 worsened. ....

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