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World Bank : Online Morning Seminar #104 "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021"

World Bank : Online Morning Seminar #104 “Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021”
04/24/2021 | 12:24am EDT
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The World Bank s Commodity Markets Outlook is published twice a year, in April and October. The report provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups, including energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. Price forecasts to 2030 for 46 commodities are presented, together with historical price data. The report also contains production, consumption, and trade statistics for major commodities. The latest Commodity Markets Outlook was published on April 20, 2021.
At this seminar, John Baffes, Senior Agricultural Economist, Prospects Group, presented the main points of the report.
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Precious metal prices expected to be lower in 2021

Precious metal prices expected to be lower in 2021
Precious metal prices have stabilized recently as the improving prospects for the global economy has reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Some precious metal prices surged early in the pandemic as uncertainty overshadowed the global economy. Prices are projected to be lower in 2021 as the global economy recovers, according to the October 2020 edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
Precious metals prices have fallen recently, but remain higher than end-2019
Global uncertainty improved in 2020 Q3
Both silver and platinum prices are supported by robust industrial demand. More than half of silver’s demand comes from industrial applications, such as in electrical and electronics, while a quarter of platinum’s supplies are used by the automotive industry (each catalytic converter uses 0.10 to 0.25 troy ounces of platinum, equivalent to $100-230 per vehicle at current prices). ....

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Fertilizer prices to rise moderately in 2021

Fertilizer prices to rise moderately in 2021
Although fertilizer prices have been resilient amid the pandemic, they have followed different paths. Phosphate and urea prices surged in the second of half of 2020 following losses earlier in the year, reflecting robust demand and higher input costs. Potash prices remain subdued due to oversupply. Fertilizer prices are projected to increase modestly by 3% in 2021, according to the October 2020 edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
Phosphate DAP prices jumped 23% in 3rd quarter of 2020, supported by strong demand from key crop-growing regions. A depreciation of the Brazilian real led to higher domestic crop prices, which has driven demand. Early monsoon rains in India boosted the Kharif (summer or monsoons) plantings, while precipitation in Australia, after two seasons of drought, improved crop growing conditions. Similarly, favorable weather conditions in North America spurred fertilizer use, following three ....

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Raw material commodity prices gain momentum amid stronger demand

Raw material commodity prices gain momentum amid stronger demand
Agricultural raw material prices gained momentum in the second half of 2020 as global industrial production strengthened. The momentum was led by a sharp rebound in tire manufacturing, which supported natural rubber prices. Following a projected marginal decline this year, raw material prices are expected to gain nearly 2% in 2021, according to the October 2020 edition of World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
Cotton prices returned to pre-pandemic levels, but further price increases are likely to be capped by near-record stock levels. Early estimates for the 2020-21 season point to a supply drop of 5% (notably by the United States and Brazil) and a broad-based increase in demand, estimated at about 6%. Notwithstanding the rebalancing, stocks are expected to reach a near-record 21.7 million tons, thus limiting the price recovery. Following a projected decline of almost 10% in 2020, cotton prices are expec ....

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